***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2012.-15.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 9999.0 0.0 4.6 0.7 55.6 56.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 3.7 5.2 5.3 1.6 61.2 61.5 1.0 3.3 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 5.1 6.4 5.1 0.9 57.3 56.7 1.3 4.8 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 0.1 -0.1 1.8 0.1 52.7 52.4 -1.8 -0.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 4.9 3.0 2.4 -0.6 45.9 46.1 1.8 4.5 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 0.9 0.5 -0.6 -3.0 22.1 23.4 1.5 3.7 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 3.1 5.1 4.9 1.3 59.6 59.6 0.6 2.8 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -1.6 -1.6 0.8 -2.1 29.5 30.9 -1.3 0.5 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 5.8 6.4 3.8 -0.1 52.0 50.8 1.7 5.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.6 1.7 2.0 -1.3 38.3 39.0 1.1 3.8 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.1 1.8 2.0 -1.3 38.2 39.6 1.7 4.6 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 1.8 2.1 1.1 -2.1 28.8 30.7 2.4 5.1 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 0.9 0.4 0.5 -2.9 22.2 24.3 2.0 4.1 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 93 7 100 6.1 5.1 4.5 -0.1 47.8 47.6 0.9 5.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 6.0 6.0 4.2 1.6 67.7 66.0 1.2 2.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.6 2.7 1.2 -1.9 32.0 33.2 2.7 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 5.0 5.0 5.2 1.9 65.3 64.6 0.4 3.0 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.8 0.4 1.4 -1.8 34.5 33.8 0.2 1.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 4.4 5.3 5.5 1.6 60.4 60.9 0.6 4.0 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 -1.4 -2.1 -0.9 -2.8 20.0 23.5 -1.3 1.9 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 5.0 5.6 4.4 0.4 55.7 54.2 1.4 4.7 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 5.5 6.0 5.7 2.2 65.8 66.4 0.9 2.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 3.4 5.2 5.5 1.3 57.3 57.9 0.9 3.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 7.4 4.0 3.7 -0.6 44.9 44.3 1.9 7.0 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 3.6 3.3 2.8 -0.1 50.7 50.5 1.7 3.3 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 94 6 0 100 1.0 0.8 -0.5 -3.4 14.7 17.6 2.0 4.1 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 4.6 4.4 3.6 0.1 50.4 51.3 2.5 4.3 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 4.4 3.7 2.7 0.3 54.1 53.4 1.0 3.4 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 0.2 -0.1 0.5 -2.1 28.8 30.4 0.4 2.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 3.8 5.5 5.2 1.3 60.3 59.8 0.7 3.5 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------