***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.1 1.0 60.2 59.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 -1.8 -1.8 -1.1 1.1 65.0 62.4 -4.4 -3.0 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -0.6 -1.3 1.0 61.5 59.8 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -5.8 -5.3 -3.5 0.9 62.5 59.8 -7.7 -6.3 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -2.8 -3.3 0.5 55.3 55.3 -4.2 -3.1 -2.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 -4.1 -4.8 -6.5 -0.9 41.3 38.8 -5.3 -4.6 -3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 -2.3 -1.7 -1.1 1.1 63.6 61.5 -4.2 -2.7 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -9.0 -8.6 -5.3 -0.5 41.7 44.1 -9.2 -7.8 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 -2.0 -2.0 -2.6 0.7 56.7 57.3 -3.4 -2.3 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 -2.4 -2.9 -4.3 0.1 49.6 50.2 -3.5 -2.9 -2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -2.7 -3.3 -3.9 0.1 50.2 50.4 -4.2 -3.3 -2.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -5.7 -4.5 -4.7 -0.6 38.2 43.0 -4.6 -4.1 -3.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 -3.2 -4.1 -5.2 -0.8 37.5 40.2 -4.4 -3.8 -2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 -1.6 -1.7 -2.8 0.4 52.3 53.1 -3.0 -1.8 -1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 -2.0 -1.9 -2.5 1.6 68.8 67.8 -3.7 -2.7 -2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 -2.0 -2.6 -4.5 -0.1 46.1 47.6 -3.5 -2.5 -2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 -2.1 -2.1 -1.0 1.3 64.2 64.3 -4.3 -3.0 -2.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -4.3 -4.9 -5.0 -0.1 45.9 48.1 -5.5 -4.8 -4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 -1.6 -1.7 -1.1 1.1 64.5 62.2 -4.2 -2.7 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -7.9 -8.8 -6.8 -0.6 42.7 43.1 -9.3 -8.6 -7.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 -2.1 -2.2 -1.7 0.9 58.0 59.1 -4.0 -2.5 -1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 -2.1 -2.1 -0.8 1.4 65.9 65.1 -4.6 -3.3 -2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 -2.2 -2.1 -1.4 1.0 61.9 60.4 -3.9 -2.6 -1.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 -4.1 -2.9 -3.1 0.3 50.3 53.0 -4.2 -2.9 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -2.4 -2.7 0.8 58.1 58.1 -4.1 -2.6 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 -5.0 -4.3 -5.4 -1.2 32.1 33.9 -4.3 -3.6 -2.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -2.5 -1.9 0.8 58.5 58.5 -4.2 -2.8 -1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -3.7 -3.2 -3.2 1.0 62.7 61.3 -5.1 -4.0 -3.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -5.0 -5.7 -5.9 -0.5 43.8 44.7 -6.5 -5.5 -4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -1.5 -1.1 1.1 64.8 61.4 -3.9 -2.4 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------