***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-22.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.0 0.9 57.6 58.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -1.4 -1.0 1.0 64.3 59.0 -3.8 -2.7 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -0.3 -1.2 0.8 61.9 58.2 -1.9 -0.7 0.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -5.5 -6.2 -3.5 0.6 53.4 55.9 -6.9 -6.2 -4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -2.8 -3.4 -3.5 0.2 51.0 52.4 -4.4 -3.5 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 -5.5 -5.8 -7.0 -1.7 26.0 33.4 -5.7 -3.6 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 -2.1 -1.6 -1.0 0.9 61.5 58.1 -4.1 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -9.1 -8.1 -5.3 -0.9 38.6 43.9 -8.6 -7.5 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -1.9 -2.7 0.3 51.5 53.5 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 -2.4 -3.5 -4.3 -0.4 44.8 47.9 -3.8 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 -4.5 -3.6 -4.1 -0.3 42.8 48.5 -4.3 -3.1 -1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 -5.8 -5.1 -4.7 -0.9 35.7 44.0 -5.3 -4.0 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 -4.9 -4.9 -5.6 -1.3 31.9 38.8 -4.9 -3.7 -2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 -3.5 -2.0 -2.9 0.0 48.8 50.1 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 -1.3 -1.2 -2.6 1.4 61.5 62.8 -4.0 -2.0 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 -3.9 -3.2 -4.8 -0.6 38.5 45.2 -3.5 -2.7 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 -2.5 -2.2 -0.9 1.1 63.2 59.5 -4.3 -2.9 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 -6.2 -5.7 -5.0 -0.6 41.4 45.0 -6.0 -5.1 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 -2.2 -1.5 -1.1 0.9 64.5 59.0 -3.4 -2.6 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -10.0 -9.5 -7.0 -1.2 35.8 40.0 -9.7 -7.7 -6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 0.7 55.9 56.5 -3.6 -2.8 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -2.1 -0.8 1.2 64.4 60.5 -3.8 -2.8 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -1.7 -1.4 0.7 60.9 57.2 -4.3 -2.2 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -4.3 -3.2 -3.2 0.0 48.9 50.2 -4.1 -3.2 -2.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -1.7 -2.7 0.6 54.1 55.3 -3.7 -2.0 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 -5.3 -5.6 -5.7 -1.6 24.6 35.4 -4.9 -3.1 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -2.2 -1.8 0.7 54.5 56.3 -3.7 -2.6 -1.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -2.9 -3.3 0.8 53.8 57.3 -4.7 -3.0 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -7.1 -6.1 -5.9 -1.0 37.2 41.8 -6.2 -5.8 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 -2.0 -1.3 -1.0 0.9 63.0 58.9 -3.4 -2.3 -1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------