***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2012.-15.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.6 1.7 62.9 62.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 -1.7 -1.1 -0.2 2.1 65.0 67.1 -3.5 -1.9 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 0.3 1.0 -0.6 1.9 63.5 64.5 -2.5 0.1 1.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 -5.3 -4.6 -3.0 1.4 58.7 59.8 -8.2 -5.5 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 -2.4 -2.3 -2.6 1.1 52.9 56.4 -3.7 -2.5 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 -4.0 -5.4 -6.3 -0.9 40.9 41.0 -6.6 -4.5 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 -1.6 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 64.9 64.8 -3.4 -1.9 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -6.8 -8.2 -5.9 -0.8 37.6 38.8 -8.4 -7.3 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 -0.9 -0.8 -1.5 1.8 58.0 63.9 -4.5 -1.1 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 -2.2 -2.8 -4.1 0.4 47.7 50.0 -5.1 -2.4 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 -2.3 -2.6 -3.5 0.6 48.6 50.5 -5.6 -2.5 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -2.8 -6.8 -5.1 -0.9 35.8 37.6 -7.1 -3.2 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 -3.0 -5.7 -5.0 -0.8 37.4 39.6 -6.2 -3.3 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 93 7 100 -0.8 -0.6 -1.8 1.3 55.5 57.7 -3.3 -0.9 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 -0.5 0.1 -1.0 2.6 72.6 72.8 -4.9 -2.7 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 -2.1 -2.9 -4.1 0.3 46.0 47.6 -4.3 -2.2 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 48 52 100 -1.1 -1.0 -0.1 2.4 66.3 68.1 -3.6 -2.2 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 -4.0 -5.4 -5.1 0.2 44.3 47.3 -6.7 -4.2 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2 2.2 66.1 68.3 -3.6 -1.6 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 -8.3 -9.1 -7.2 -0.9 39.3 40.3 -10.2 -8.9 -7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 -1.8 -1.1 -0.7 1.9 60.4 64.2 -4.4 -2.0 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 -0.9 -1.1 0.1 2.6 68.4 71.0 -4.9 -2.0 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 -0.7 -0.9 -0.4 2.1 66.8 69.2 -3.8 -1.8 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 93 7 100 -1.9 -1.4 -2.6 1.1 53.7 55.7 -4.1 -2.0 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 -2.0 -1.7 -2.0 1.1 54.8 58.1 -3.8 -2.3 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 -6.2 -6.4 -6.2 -2.1 30.0 30.2 -6.3 -3.9 -1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 -1.5 -1.5 -1.3 1.3 58.7 60.2 -3.4 -1.7 -0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 -3.5 -3.2 -2.3 1.8 61.8 63.0 -6.2 -3.7 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 -4.4 -6.4 -6.3 -0.4 42.8 43.2 -8.1 -4.7 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 -1.6 -0.6 -0.3 2.0 65.4 66.0 -3.3 -1.8 -0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------