***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 16.2 22.5 35.2 86.8 45.6 43.4 13.0 26.7 33.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 15.6 24.7 32.5 91.8 53.7 46.3 15.9 24.1 32.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 20.2 30.4 34.7 87.5 48.6 43.2 20.9 30.5 41.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 43.4 42.0 48.3 112.1 61.1 55.9 28.8 39.1 49.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 40.5 33.7 40.7 91.1 44.6 44.8 21.7 35.4 41.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 19.4 30.7 40.8 99.3 50.5 49.9 14.2 30.6 38.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 15.0 25.6 32.6 93.4 53.8 47.6 15.0 25.2 32.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 32.4 53.7 47.0 100.0 52.4 50.2 35.8 49.2 66.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 17.4 22.1 41.1 89.6 45.3 44.2 19.8 22.7 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 20.7 28.0 45.5 94.4 48.1 47.2 23.6 29.1 40.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 19.5 26.2 40.8 93.7 46.0 46.3 17.9 29.4 42.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 18.3 26.8 41.2 97.3 49.1 48.7 13.7 27.9 36.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 16.4 24.5 42.1 91.9 40.6 45.3 18.2 28.1 46.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 31.3 42.6 44.5 88.9 44.2 43.0 30.2 46.5 55.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 27.8 51.6 49.2 128.6 72.1 61.3 15.3 20.5 36.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 17.6 24.3 40.3 94.1 44.1 46.7 15.6 28.3 39.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 28.3 28.1 33.9 99.0 57.9 51.0 11.6 25.0 30.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 18.8 28.1 48.2 95.0 48.7 47.9 20.7 28.1 39.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 18.1 31.9 32.9 90.1 51.7 44.9 19.6 30.0 36.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 20.5 37.6 63.4 104.7 58.4 52.7 15.1 32.3 46.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 19.8 23.9 38.1 87.5 45.0 43.6 17.1 26.6 34.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 16.4 26.6 35.0 96.5 54.9 48.7 15.7 23.7 31.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 16.7 24.7 34.7 88.2 47.5 43.4 15.4 26.1 36.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 26.9 33.1 41.8 89.3 45.1 44.1 27.1 33.4 46.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 35.5 27.7 41.8 89.0 45.4 44.2 21.8 31.7 37.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 15.5 26.0 42.1 100.3 53.2 50.2 12.8 25.5 38.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 29.7 24.9 37.8 86.9 45.0 43.4 15.4 26.3 33.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.5 34.8 47.0 119.9 65.2 58.8 13.3 21.4 35.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 34.5 55.3 53.4 98.6 51.8 50.1 28.8 54.1 60.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 13.0 23.1 32.8 90.0 52.6 44.8 17.3 22.9 33.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------