***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 0.8 3.6 9.9 96.1 58.4 45.8 0.4 1.7 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.2 9.2 95.3 59.5 45.7 1.1 3.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.6 9.3 93.0 56.6 44.4 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.5 8.8 10.2 96.1 58.7 45.6 5.0 7.4 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.2 11.0 9.9 91.7 56.2 44.8 5.1 9.8 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.3 7.3 9.5 96.2 57.0 45.3 2.5 5.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.4 9.2 96.3 59.6 46.1 1.4 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.4 14.8 11.1 99.5 54.7 45.9 6.3 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.1 5.7 10.2 90.7 55.2 44.7 3.9 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 2.9 7.1 11.0 94.8 53.6 45.8 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.4 8.2 9.7 94.3 56.4 45.0 2.6 5.9 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 1.8 4.7 9.7 98.0 56.5 45.1 1.4 4.4 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.1 8.2 10.1 94.2 55.2 45.3 2.5 7.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 2.4 5.7 11.6 95.5 55.7 46.1 4.0 5.3 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.9 4.2 9.4 92.6 60.9 44.5 0.5 1.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.9 7.9 9.5 93.5 55.6 45.2 1.0 7.1 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.2 5.1 9.4 98.8 61.6 46.7 1.0 2.4 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.4 7.5 11.5 94.7 54.6 46.4 3.8 6.3 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.1 6.1 9.3 94.7 58.8 45.2 0.6 2.5 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.2 6.9 15.0 99.8 56.9 47.6 2.9 6.4 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.6 5.2 9.7 89.7 54.8 44.2 3.7 5.2 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.4 4.3 9.6 96.2 60.2 46.7 0.6 2.5 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.0 3.7 9.7 95.8 59.1 45.3 0.9 2.2 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.7 10.3 92.1 55.6 45.2 3.8 7.4 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.3 11.2 95.0 57.1 46.0 1.4 6.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.2 7.3 9.8 100.9 59.0 46.0 2.9 5.6 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.6 4.6 10.7 96.4 58.4 46.6 2.0 3.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.5 4.9 9.2 93.0 58.0 44.7 0.5 3.9 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.0 12.8 12.4 95.4 54.0 46.8 6.9 12.0 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.4 4.1 9.4 96.9 59.6 45.6 1.0 2.7 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------