***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.3 9.6 90.0 60.4 49.8 0.0 3.7 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.3 4.2 8.4 95.1 62.2 50.9 0.3 2.8 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.4 9.5 91.8 60.4 50.2 0.5 5.3 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.3 10.1 10.3 88.0 59.7 47.4 2.6 8.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.1 10.4 91.2 58.1 50.3 0.8 4.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.0 9.4 88.3 55.0 47.9 0.6 5.0 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.0 3.6 8.3 94.6 60.5 50.7 0.2 2.2 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.9 11.3 89.6 56.9 47.9 4.4 9.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.4 10.0 83.5 54.5 46.8 0.9 4.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.1 5.8 10.7 88.1 54.9 48.2 1.4 4.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.2 10.4 88.0 53.9 48.5 1.0 4.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.4 10.1 86.0 55.8 47.2 1.7 4.8 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.3 10.0 84.5 53.7 46.3 2.2 5.3 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.8 9.4 11.9 91.5 58.2 50.2 2.7 6.1 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.4 7.3 10.4 94.3 64.3 48.9 1.7 5.1 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.8 10.0 88.4 54.8 47.8 0.7 3.8 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.1 8.5 98.5 62.7 52.3 0.0 1.9 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.2 11.5 89.9 54.1 48.6 2.0 5.3 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.9 6.2 8.7 93.4 61.7 50.9 0.3 3.8 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.4 8.1 17.2 106.9 61.9 51.7 2.2 4.5 8.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.8 8.0 9.9 86.6 57.1 48.3 0.4 4.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.4 8.5 91.3 59.9 51.3 0.0 2.6 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.9 9.7 94.1 61.7 52.2 0.3 3.2 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.9 10.6 87.5 55.2 49.0 1.9 4.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 1.8 7.9 11.2 93.6 59.2 49.9 0.2 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 1.1 3.0 10.1 92.0 57.1 49.7 0.9 2.4 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.4 4.3 10.0 90.7 58.8 48.9 0.2 3.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.6 9.7 89.5 60.8 48.3 0.9 4.6 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.0 8.5 13.4 95.3 55.5 49.6 4.1 7.0 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 0.7 3.8 8.8 94.6 61.8 50.7 0.3 1.5 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------