***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.2 7.6 78.5 52.7 46.4 0.1 1.2 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 3.5 4.1 7.8 94.3 57.9 53.3 1.3 2.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.8 7.7 80.0 52.5 46.1 0.9 2.9 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 9.1 12.1 17.8 168.3 77.9 70.7 1.2 4.5 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 6.1 5.5 10.5 91.1 53.6 51.7 1.4 5.1 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 3.4 3.7 11.9 116.0 66.0 60.7 0.9 3.1 3.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 2.6 4.5 8.2 100.6 58.7 55.1 0.8 1.2 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 7.4 8.4 12.7 110.6 60.0 57.5 2.1 6.7 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.8 10.4 96.5 56.1 52.1 0.4 2.7 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.8 5.6 11.9 97.0 55.9 53.0 0.7 5.5 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 4.8 4.7 10.7 98.8 55.3 53.6 0.4 3.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 3.7 4.7 11.4 110.8 60.4 57.6 0.4 2.9 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 3.8 4.1 12.2 102.2 58.1 55.6 1.2 3.1 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.8 9.5 78.2 51.3 45.1 3.2 6.1 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 8.5 15.1 18.8 230.2 87.3 79.5 0.7 4.3 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 4.6 5.8 11.3 104.1 58.1 56.1 0.9 4.0 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 4.6 6.8 8.9 113.9 62.8 59.5 1.2 3.5 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.4 12.5 96.7 57.9 53.1 1.3 3.6 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.6 4.0 7.7 88.7 56.2 51.0 1.4 3.0 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 5.1 5.5 15.1 109.9 60.6 57.1 1.4 3.6 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 1.4 3.7 9.2 88.5 53.5 49.3 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 4.9 6.8 9.3 112.9 63.5 58.6 1.5 3.9 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.2 3.8 7.3 77.8 52.2 46.5 0.8 3.3 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.7 10.0 85.2 53.1 48.0 2.2 3.2 6.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.9 3.2 9.8 82.6 51.5 47.8 1.1 3.0 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 3.9 4.6 11.6 110.3 59.6 58.2 1.1 3.5 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 3.1 2.0 8.4 79.8 52.1 47.2 0.3 1.6 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 7.7 10.9 18.0 199.3 81.8 75.2 1.0 2.4 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 7.5 9.1 13.6 104.6 60.2 54.9 3.1 5.4 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.6 3.3 7.4 86.2 55.0 50.2 0.6 2.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------