***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 5.2 6.2 6.4 2.3 80.6 73.9 2.4 3.5 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 5.2 6.2 6.5 2.2 79.3 73.8 2.5 3.2 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 6.5 7.5 6.9 2.2 78.7 72.9 3.1 4.0 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 1.2 1.6 3.0 1.4 69.1 64.6 -1.8 -0.6 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 6.0 6.8 5.0 2.2 77.5 72.9 3.2 3.8 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 5.0 5.8 3.8 2.1 75.9 72.9 2.9 3.5 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 4.9 5.8 6.4 2.3 80.4 75.1 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 0.5 1.2 4.4 1.9 78.0 72.3 -2.4 -1.2 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 6.7 7.5 5.9 2.2 78.4 72.8 3.9 4.6 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 5.6 6.3 5.1 2.0 77.5 72.3 3.3 3.9 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 6.1 7.1 5.2 2.2 79.3 73.5 3.4 4.0 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 6.2 7.1 4.8 2.1 79.4 73.5 3.6 4.5 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 6.0 6.9 4.9 2.4 80.5 76.7 3.3 4.1 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 7.0 8.1 6.5 2.1 78.5 71.9 3.6 4.3 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 4.7 4.6 3.9 1.3 66.2 63.2 2.8 4.0 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 6.4 7.3 4.7 2.3 78.3 74.4 3.9 4.5 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 4.5 5.2 6.3 2.1 78.4 73.0 2.4 2.8 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 4.2 4.7 5.2 2.1 78.1 73.4 2.0 2.7 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 5.6 6.5 6.7 2.3 79.3 73.7 2.6 3.4 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 3.0 3.6 3.5 2.0 80.6 74.9 0.3 1.8 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 6.3 7.5 6.4 2.1 79.5 72.4 3.5 4.0 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 5.6 6.5 6.5 2.0 78.3 72.8 2.7 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 5.4 6.4 7.0 2.3 79.6 73.9 2.5 3.2 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 6.9 7.9 6.4 2.2 78.6 72.8 3.7 4.5 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 4.9 5.5 5.0 2.1 76.8 72.4 2.3 3.2 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 5.7 6.3 4.3 2.3 79.9 76.6 3.4 4.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 5.6 6.5 6.0 2.3 80.4 75.1 2.7 3.6 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.0 5.6 3.5 1.4 67.5 63.6 3.7 4.6 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 3.5 4.4 4.7 2.2 79.6 74.8 0.7 1.6 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 5.1 6.1 6.5 2.3 79.8 74.1 2.0 3.1 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------