***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.5 6.0 6.1 1.7 64.8 61.9 1.8 2.4 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.0 6.0 1.6 61.5 61.1 1.8 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.4 6.6 1.6 63.6 61.2 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 0.7 0.8 3.8 1.9 67.2 63.2 -3.0 -2.0 0.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.5 6.5 4.9 1.8 65.9 62.7 3.3 3.6 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.9 3.7 1.6 63.1 61.2 2.0 3.8 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.9 6.0 1.6 61.7 61.4 1.4 4.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -1.4 -0.8 4.1 1.4 60.4 60.3 -3.1 -1.9 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 7.3 6.8 5.6 1.7 64.4 61.4 3.5 4.6 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.1 6.7 4.8 1.5 61.5 60.3 3.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.0 7.3 4.8 1.7 64.0 62.0 3.2 4.0 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.4 4.5 1.5 62.1 60.9 3.3 4.7 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.0 6.9 3.9 1.5 62.9 61.1 3.2 4.1 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.5 5.9 1.4 61.9 59.3 3.8 5.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 6.1 6.2 4.4 1.7 65.5 61.9 3.0 4.0 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.3 7.8 4.4 1.7 64.4 62.1 3.4 4.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 4.8 4.8 6.0 1.4 61.0 60.6 1.4 4.2 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.5 4.8 1.4 59.8 59.3 3.0 3.7 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.3 6.3 1.6 61.8 61.1 2.2 4.2 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.2 57.6 58.7 0.3 2.1 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 6.9 6.8 6.1 1.7 65.5 61.5 3.3 4.1 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.4 6.1 1.4 60.9 60.4 2.2 4.6 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.0 6.0 6.7 1.6 62.3 60.8 2.3 4.0 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.2 5.8 1.4 61.6 59.7 3.7 5.7 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 5.7 5.4 4.8 1.8 67.7 63.2 2.2 2.8 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.2 6.7 3.8 1.5 64.2 62.5 3.1 4.6 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.7 6.2 5.6 1.7 65.5 62.3 2.2 3.9 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 7.4 8.1 4.2 1.8 65.5 62.4 3.1 5.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.5 4.1 1.3 58.4 59.0 0.7 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.8 6.1 1.6 62.0 61.4 1.7 3.8 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------