***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 5.6 7.1 6.2 2.2 71.9 66.8 0.6 2.4 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 5.5 6.9 6.3 2.2 69.9 66.9 0.3 2.1 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 6.7 7.9 6.6 2.1 69.5 65.6 1.2 3.6 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 2.4 2.2 3.3 1.8 68.6 64.3 -2.6 0.2 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 7.7 8.1 4.6 2.0 70.6 65.4 1.6 5.6 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.0 3.5 1.9 65.5 63.4 2.4 5.1 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.0 6.5 6.3 2.2 71.6 67.6 -0.1 1.8 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 0.5 1.0 4.0 1.8 68.5 63.8 -2.4 -0.9 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 7.7 8.5 5.4 2.0 70.4 64.6 2.1 4.8 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 6.9 7.8 4.7 1.9 69.1 63.8 1.4 4.3 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 7.7 7.9 4.6 2.1 70.0 65.7 1.7 5.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 7.5 8.3 4.4 2.0 69.2 65.2 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 7.0 7.8 4.0 2.1 68.8 66.2 2.1 4.9 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 7.2 8.4 6.0 1.9 66.8 63.6 0.9 4.1 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 6.1 4.4 3.7 1.5 62.7 62.1 1.5 3.9 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 8.3 8.5 4.3 2.1 70.1 66.0 2.6 6.0 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 4.7 5.8 6.2 2.0 69.3 66.1 0.4 1.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 5.2 5.5 4.8 1.9 67.6 63.6 1.1 3.2 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 6.3 7.2 6.5 2.2 70.0 66.5 -0.1 2.1 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 4.7 4.6 2.8 1.7 67.3 63.4 -1.0 2.1 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.9 6.0 2.0 69.6 64.9 2.5 4.5 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 5.8 6.4 6.3 2.0 68.8 65.4 0.6 1.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 5.8 7.0 6.9 2.2 70.2 65.8 0.5 2.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 7.3 8.3 5.8 2.0 67.9 63.9 1.1 3.9 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 5.4 6.2 4.6 2.1 71.8 66.2 0.7 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.4 5.9 3.9 2.1 69.5 67.3 1.8 5.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 6.6 8.2 5.7 2.2 72.5 67.2 0.6 3.7 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 7.2 6.9 3.5 1.7 65.8 63.0 2.3 4.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 4.7 4.3 4.2 1.9 67.0 63.5 -0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 5.7 6.4 6.3 2.2 70.3 67.1 0.0 2.2 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------