***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.4 6.2 2.2 72.4 68.8 2.4 3.5 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 4.9 5.5 6.5 2.4 74.0 69.4 1.2 3.4 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 6.0 6.2 6.9 2.4 73.4 68.9 2.6 4.4 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.7 0.8 2.4 1.2 59.2 58.7 -3.1 0.1 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.2 5.2 2.6 75.2 70.3 2.9 4.3 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 5.8 6.2 4.4 2.7 76.9 72.1 2.3 3.9 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 4.5 5.3 6.4 2.4 75.4 70.6 0.6 3.0 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 1.5 2.8 4.8 2.6 76.3 71.5 -2.2 -1.3 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 7.0 7.5 6.2 2.7 75.2 71.4 2.9 5.0 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 5.8 6.1 5.6 2.7 75.3 71.3 2.5 4.1 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 5.8 6.5 5.8 2.9 78.6 72.5 2.2 4.3 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 7.0 8.4 5.2 2.7 78.6 72.7 2.2 4.5 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 5.9 6.7 5.7 3.1 78.1 74.7 2.6 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 6.3 7.3 7.1 2.7 71.4 69.6 2.6 4.4 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.8 3.3 1.0 57.4 57.7 1.8 4.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 6.1 6.6 5.2 2.9 77.5 72.7 3.2 4.8 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 4.1 4.8 6.3 2.2 72.9 69.2 1.3 2.8 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 3.8 4.1 5.7 2.8 74.8 71.6 1.4 2.3 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 5.0 6.0 6.8 2.4 74.8 69.7 1.4 3.2 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 3.7 3.8 4.1 2.6 74.7 72.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 5.8 6.1 6.6 2.4 72.3 69.4 2.7 4.3 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.6 6.6 2.2 73.0 68.9 1.6 3.3 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 4.6 5.2 7.1 2.6 75.2 70.7 1.9 2.8 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 6.3 7.2 6.9 2.8 74.3 70.8 2.9 3.8 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 4.4 4.9 4.9 2.0 71.5 67.2 2.1 3.1 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 6.3 7.4 4.6 2.7 78.1 74.3 2.4 3.4 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 5.1 5.7 5.9 2.3 73.9 69.8 2.2 3.5 4.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.6 3.1 1.2 60.0 58.7 2.6 4.7 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 4.5 4.9 5.3 2.8 75.5 72.9 0.1 1.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 4.7 4.9 6.5 2.4 73.5 69.5 1.1 3.2 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------