***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 7.2 7.4 6.9 3.0 73.4 73.3 1.6 5.2 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 5.5 6.8 7.1 2.8 75.1 73.0 0.7 3.4 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 7.1 7.7 7.4 2.7 70.5 70.6 1.5 4.8 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 0.2 1.5 2.5 0.8 57.6 55.9 -2.3 -0.3 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 4.6 6.0 5.3 2.4 66.2 67.4 1.7 4.1 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 5.9 5.4 3.8 2.1 65.6 65.7 0.7 3.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 5.5 6.6 7.0 3.0 78.2 75.0 0.3 3.3 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 0.5 1.5 4.6 1.9 64.4 64.8 -1.6 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 49 51 100 7.2 8.1 6.2 2.4 67.0 67.6 1.5 5.0 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 3.9 6.2 5.3 2.0 63.6 64.6 0.8 3.4 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 4.6 6.6 5.6 2.4 65.3 66.4 1.3 4.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 5.1 6.6 5.0 2.2 65.8 66.5 1.7 4.6 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 48 52 100 6.6 7.5 6.1 3.0 69.4 69.3 1.3 4.4 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 6.2 8.2 7.2 2.4 65.4 65.9 1.1 5.7 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 3.4 5.5 4.0 1.2 59.0 58.8 0.7 2.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 5.4 6.9 5.0 2.4 65.2 66.6 2.1 4.8 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.9 5.9 6.7 2.6 73.9 72.1 0.4 2.9 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 49 51 100 4.0 4.5 5.5 2.3 67.2 67.0 0.2 2.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 6.5 7.9 7.3 2.8 74.7 73.1 0.5 4.3 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.5 3.3 4.5 2.6 71.9 71.0 -1.9 1.5 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 6.6 8.0 7.0 2.5 69.4 68.6 1.6 4.3 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 5.8 7.4 7.1 2.6 74.0 72.5 0.7 3.1 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 5.9 7.0 7.5 2.9 73.8 73.5 0.6 3.4 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 6.4 9.3 7.0 2.5 66.5 67.1 1.6 5.9 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 5.3 6.4 5.8 2.6 70.5 69.8 1.5 3.2 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.7 4.9 2.7 69.5 70.3 1.7 4.0 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 7.5 8.4 6.7 3.1 74.9 74.5 2.0 4.3 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 3.7 4.3 3.1 0.8 55.7 55.0 0.7 3.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 4.9 5.9 5.3 2.7 71.0 70.5 0.5 1.9 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 5.8 7.0 7.2 2.9 76.4 74.0 0.4 3.4 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------