***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 3.1 86.9 82.3 -3.6 -2.1 -1.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 -1.2 -0.5 -0.1 2.8 85.7 80.7 -4.3 -3.0 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 0.6 1.8 0.1 3.0 88.1 82.9 -2.1 -1.0 -0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 -4.8 -3.8 -3.4 2.4 82.1 75.3 -7.4 -6.1 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 -1.4 -0.5 -2.1 3.1 85.9 81.7 -4.1 -3.0 -2.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 -2.6 -1.7 -4.3 3.2 87.2 83.4 -5.3 -4.7 -3.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 -1.3 -0.3 0.0 2.9 84.5 80.7 -4.0 -2.7 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 -6.2 -5.3 -3.8 3.3 87.9 84.2 -9.4 -7.6 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 -1.2 0.3 -1.8 3.2 87.7 83.8 -3.4 -2.2 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 -1.5 -0.3 -3.1 3.2 87.9 84.1 -3.6 -3.0 -2.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 -1.5 -0.3 -2.7 3.4 88.3 83.7 -4.0 -3.4 -2.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 -2.3 -1.3 -3.1 3.5 87.8 84.5 -4.5 -4.0 -3.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 -2.0 -1.0 -3.4 3.3 87.4 84.5 -4.2 -3.8 -2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 -1.1 0.3 -1.8 3.1 88.3 83.5 -2.9 -2.0 -1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 -1.8 -1.3 -2.3 2.3 81.4 75.7 -3.8 -2.7 -2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 -0.7 -0.1 -3.3 3.2 86.3 82.9 -3.4 -2.7 -2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 -1.8 -1.2 -0.1 2.6 82.0 78.6 -4.2 -2.9 -2.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 -3.4 -2.1 -3.5 3.3 88.8 85.0 -5.5 -4.9 -4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 -1.0 -0.4 -0.1 2.8 86.8 81.5 -4.1 -3.0 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 -6.2 -4.9 -4.4 3.3 90.1 85.8 -9.5 -8.1 -7.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 -1.0 0.1 -0.6 3.1 87.8 83.0 -4.1 -2.5 -1.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 2.6 85.4 79.9 -4.5 -3.4 -2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 -1.3 -0.4 -0.3 2.9 87.8 83.0 -4.0 -2.6 -2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 -1.8 -0.6 -1.9 3.2 89.5 84.6 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 -1.2 -0.2 -1.1 3.1 86.5 82.0 -4.2 -2.6 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 -2.1 -0.7 -3.4 3.4 87.5 85.2 -4.4 -3.5 -2.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 -0.5 0.3 -0.3 3.2 86.6 82.4 -4.0 -2.8 -1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 -2.8 -2.0 -3.2 2.3 80.8 74.8 -5.1 -4.2 -3.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 -3.7 -2.9 -3.9 3.5 90.3 86.5 -6.4 -5.6 -4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 -0.8 0.0 0.0 2.9 86.6 81.7 -3.8 -2.7 -1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------