***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 -0.9 -0.7 -0.3 2.5 72.5 72.1 -3.5 -1.7 -1.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 -1.4 -1.0 -0.4 2.3 74.7 71.1 -3.7 -2.6 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 0.1 0.4 -0.2 2.5 73.7 72.2 -2.0 -0.7 0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -5.5 -5.2 -4.1 1.4 59.4 61.8 -7.5 -5.9 -4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 -1.4 -1.1 -2.2 2.6 71.6 71.2 -4.6 -3.2 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 -2.5 -2.0 -4.4 2.9 77.0 74.0 -5.7 -3.8 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 -1.2 -1.0 -0.2 2.5 74.6 72.1 -4.3 -2.2 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 -5.9 -5.7 -3.6 3.1 76.4 74.7 -8.9 -6.4 -6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 -0.5 -0.3 -1.9 2.9 75.0 74.0 -3.1 -1.7 -1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 -1.2 -0.6 -3.1 3.0 75.4 74.4 -4.3 -3.0 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 -1.2 -0.9 -2.6 3.1 74.7 74.2 -4.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 -1.8 -1.1 -2.8 3.3 77.0 75.6 -5.3 -4.1 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 -1.4 -0.7 -2.9 3.3 77.9 76.3 -5.1 -3.9 -3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 -0.8 -0.6 -1.9 2.8 76.9 73.8 -2.9 -1.7 -1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -1.4 -3.1 1.2 59.3 62.0 -3.7 -1.8 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 -0.9 -0.7 -3.1 2.9 74.8 73.5 -3.8 -2.7 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 -1.4 -1.5 -0.3 2.3 73.8 70.1 -4.3 -2.5 -1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 -2.9 -2.2 -3.3 3.0 78.1 74.9 -6.0 -5.0 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 -1.2 -0.8 -0.5 2.3 74.7 71.6 -3.9 -2.1 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 -5.2 -4.2 -4.3 3.0 80.3 74.3 -9.8 -7.3 -6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 -0.9 -0.7 -0.9 2.6 72.4 71.8 -3.9 -2.6 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 -1.6 -1.3 -0.4 2.2 73.8 70.4 -4.0 -2.7 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 -1.2 -1.0 -0.7 2.4 74.9 73.2 -4.3 -2.1 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 -1.5 -1.0 -2.0 2.9 77.2 74.5 -4.2 -3.3 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 -0.9 -0.6 -1.3 2.5 71.3 70.7 -3.6 -2.3 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 -1.8 -1.2 -2.9 3.4 79.2 77.0 -5.0 -3.4 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 2.7 73.3 72.3 -3.7 -2.7 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -2.7 -2.8 -4.0 1.2 57.4 60.6 -4.8 -3.1 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 -4.2 -3.4 -3.7 3.3 81.0 76.9 -6.8 -5.3 -4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 2.4 74.7 71.9 -3.7 -2.0 -1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------