***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 1.1 3.7 2.8 5.6 94.4 93.3 -3.2 -1.0 0.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.7 2.4 5.0 93.6 92.0 -4.3 -1.8 -0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 2.1 5.3 2.9 5.4 94.0 92.8 -2.4 -0.2 1.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 -2.6 -1.0 -0.5 4.4 85.7 84.3 -7.8 -6.2 -3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 0.2 0.7 1.3 5.6 93.0 91.1 -4.0 -2.7 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -1.5 0.2 -1.3 5.8 93.4 91.9 -7.2 -4.3 -2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.7 3.4 2.5 5.2 93.7 91.5 -3.6 -2.1 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 -4.4 -2.2 -0.6 5.9 93.8 92.7 -9.3 -7.1 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 1.0 2.8 1.0 5.7 96.0 93.7 -4.3 -1.7 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 -0.2 2.1 -0.1 5.8 94.8 93.3 -4.8 -3.0 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 -0.2 1.6 0.6 5.9 93.9 92.5 -5.5 -3.0 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -1.1 0.2 0.0 6.0 92.5 91.7 -7.3 -3.5 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 -0.9 0.2 -0.4 5.6 91.2 90.5 -5.7 -3.5 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 0.9 2.2 1.1 5.3 94.1 92.3 -2.8 -0.6 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 0.4 1.4 0.6 4.7 90.9 89.0 -5.5 -2.9 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 -0.1 1.3 -0.3 5.4 91.1 89.9 -4.5 -2.6 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 -0.1 1.7 2.2 4.7 91.9 89.5 -3.9 -2.2 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -1.4 -0.4 0.0 5.8 95.4 94.0 -6.2 -4.7 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.7 2.9 2.3 5.0 94.3 92.6 -3.7 -2.0 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -4.3 -0.6 -0.5 6.4 96.8 95.2 -10.8 -8.5 -7.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 0.3 1.9 2.3 5.5 94.4 93.0 -4.4 -2.2 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 -0.3 2.2 2.4 4.7 93.8 90.8 -4.2 -2.0 -0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.3 2.2 2.1 5.1 95.2 93.9 -3.8 -1.7 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 -0.1 1.0 1.2 5.5 94.8 93.1 -3.7 -1.8 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.0 2.1 5.5 93.1 91.5 -4.2 -2.3 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -1.0 0.2 -0.2 5.8 90.7 90.9 -5.6 -3.9 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 1.1 3.6 2.6 5.8 93.4 92.1 -3.7 -2.3 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 -1.6 -0.4 -0.3 4.6 85.8 84.7 -6.4 -4.0 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 6.4 96.8 95.2 -8.4 -4.7 -1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 0.5 3.5 2.7 5.3 94.1 93.0 -3.1 -2.0 -0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------