***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 25.5 35.2 50.5 124.5 69.6 63.4 12.6 22.7 33.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.7 30.8 43.7 121.8 68.4 61.3 15.9 23.0 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 33.6 44.6 49.2 121.9 69.7 62.0 21.4 28.5 42.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 51.7 58.5 55.8 128.2 74.7 67.5 25.1 39.8 47.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 47.7 51.2 57.6 129.7 75.3 67.7 22.2 36.0 44.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 37.8 41.5 56.7 137.1 77.1 71.3 14.3 30.3 37.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.3 31.9 43.0 121.6 70.1 61.5 15.6 25.0 31.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 67.2 74.1 63.1 137.4 78.8 69.5 33.5 53.1 66.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 35.1 36.7 58.4 128.5 74.3 67.2 20.2 23.2 32.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 43.8 50.2 61.2 130.9 75.0 67.4 23.5 29.8 44.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 42.1 47.5 57.1 133.0 76.1 69.0 18.1 29.4 42.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 41.4 48.7 58.2 139.5 80.0 71.3 13.7 27.9 36.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 47.4 57.9 62.0 141.7 80.5 72.8 18.2 28.0 44.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 53.8 56.7 62.6 126.2 72.3 65.3 28.9 44.9 53.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 28.4 35.3 45.8 115.2 66.1 61.7 15.3 22.8 35.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 41.7 49.0 57.5 136.2 78.7 71.0 15.7 27.4 39.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 31.9 31.6 43.1 121.8 70.0 61.9 11.6 24.2 28.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 40.2 47.2 65.3 132.5 76.9 67.5 20.4 28.9 43.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 30.8 36.4 45.2 121.6 68.6 61.3 19.1 28.9 36.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 44.7 50.5 82.6 138.3 79.3 68.9 14.4 32.3 45.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 42.6 44.5 55.6 127.3 72.4 65.8 17.2 28.1 35.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.5 30.8 45.7 121.3 67.7 61.3 15.8 23.5 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 27.0 37.6 49.0 122.3 72.0 62.2 16.1 23.9 36.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 44.0 48.5 59.3 127.5 73.9 65.1 25.3 35.4 43.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 41.5 45.8 59.4 129.9 73.1 66.8 22.2 31.7 39.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 38.8 45.5 59.5 141.0 80.6 71.6 14.0 25.4 38.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 34.7 35.9 54.4 127.5 71.3 65.2 15.6 25.8 33.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 26.4 38.8 49.2 121.5 70.2 64.6 13.6 22.4 35.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 69.1 78.0 70.5 134.2 76.9 68.2 28.6 54.2 62.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 26.6 33.1 44.9 121.6 68.1 61.4 17.0 22.5 32.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------