***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 3.2 8.8 13.2 136.7 70.2 61.2 0.4 1.7 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 3.6 5.5 12.1 142.9 71.5 61.2 1.0 2.7 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 5.3 13.5 13.1 134.0 67.9 60.5 1.3 2.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 14.5 15.4 15.3 141.7 72.4 64.2 6.2 7.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 16.2 16.7 15.5 138.2 68.6 63.3 4.5 10.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 14.1 16.4 15.9 148.1 75.5 66.9 3.1 7.5 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 4.7 5.7 11.8 141.6 72.1 61.6 1.6 3.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 17.5 25.0 17.6 147.0 72.2 64.8 8.7 15.5 24.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.2 9.7 16.0 134.9 67.9 63.0 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.8 14.3 17.2 139.0 69.9 63.5 5.5 8.2 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.1 12.1 15.5 139.8 70.3 63.8 6.2 9.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 10.4 12.6 15.8 148.0 72.5 65.6 1.2 5.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 14.9 16.5 16.5 148.8 73.8 66.8 3.3 9.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 6.9 15.5 16.4 134.2 67.4 62.1 3.0 4.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 9.8 8.7 14.2 136.1 72.2 64.1 0.8 4.4 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 12.2 13.7 15.5 143.1 72.9 65.2 1.4 8.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.6 6.2 11.9 140.7 72.7 61.9 0.9 2.9 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 11.0 12.3 18.0 140.1 71.1 63.6 3.6 7.9 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 3.1 8.3 12.4 140.9 70.5 61.0 0.7 1.8 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 12.2 15.1 23.9 152.1 76.5 65.2 3.1 6.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.4 11.2 14.6 135.1 69.5 62.4 2.9 5.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 3.8 6.0 12.6 141.6 71.5 62.2 0.5 3.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 3.4 7.4 13.0 135.2 68.8 61.0 0.8 2.0 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.2 12.3 15.6 133.4 68.2 61.8 4.6 7.3 11.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 8.8 14.5 15.2 138.8 71.0 63.3 1.3 6.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.1 16.7 16.6 157.3 76.2 68.3 3.5 9.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 5.5 9.5 14.0 136.5 70.8 62.1 1.3 4.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 10.7 10.1 14.3 135.7 72.4 63.8 0.9 5.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 18.0 17.9 19.5 143.4 72.6 64.3 7.4 14.9 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 3.6 6.5 12.3 141.1 70.2 61.1 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------