***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.7 11.6 13.5 124.3 67.9 59.9 2.4 6.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.0 11.6 12.4 135.6 73.3 62.7 2.4 4.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 10.2 13.0 13.0 121.5 68.6 58.8 3.7 8.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.1 10.1 12.5 104.5 62.1 54.8 3.8 7.7 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.8 10.9 13.1 110.9 64.1 56.9 3.6 8.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.7 8.6 12.7 111.5 66.6 54.9 2.8 4.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.1 12.3 12.6 137.6 72.9 62.6 1.0 4.3 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.1 14.1 15.1 122.9 69.2 59.1 5.4 10.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 7.5 10.1 14.2 115.6 66.3 58.7 3.0 6.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.3 13.1 14.6 116.8 67.2 58.0 3.0 6.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.9 10.2 13.1 115.9 66.6 58.2 3.5 4.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 6.1 10.2 13.6 121.9 70.1 59.3 2.9 5.1 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.8 10.8 14.1 120.5 69.4 58.3 4.1 6.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.9 21.0 15.8 120.6 68.9 58.7 9.3 13.1 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.1 10.5 90.9 58.9 51.3 1.0 4.1 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.3 8.2 12.9 114.0 66.2 57.0 2.8 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.5 10.9 13.0 145.0 74.5 64.4 1.4 5.2 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.0 11.4 15.6 119.1 68.0 58.3 5.5 7.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 7.9 11.2 12.4 131.3 71.4 61.5 2.6 6.6 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.5 11.0 20.5 128.1 69.4 59.7 4.0 8.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.8 10.5 13.9 119.5 68.6 58.8 3.6 6.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.9 12.5 13.3 139.9 71.2 63.2 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 8.5 11.3 13.0 126.0 69.2 59.6 3.1 7.5 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.7 18.4 14.7 119.2 68.8 58.4 5.8 9.8 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.4 15.0 123.2 67.0 59.7 3.4 7.7 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.0 8.2 13.5 117.4 69.4 55.9 2.6 4.3 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.9 9.7 14.5 127.2 68.3 60.7 2.9 6.1 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.3 5.2 11.1 96.8 60.5 52.4 1.5 3.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 16.9 22.5 16.9 122.2 68.6 58.8 7.4 14.8 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.6 11.7 12.5 131.0 70.1 61.6 1.2 4.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------