***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.6 10.8 106.6 58.9 53.9 0.0 2.6 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.4 3.2 8.7 93.6 54.9 48.7 0.3 2.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.7 5.7 10.0 98.2 56.0 50.6 0.4 4.8 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.7 10.7 103.4 59.9 52.4 2.9 5.6 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 1.9 9.0 11.1 108.0 62.4 52.7 0.6 4.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.0 10.0 102.0 61.8 52.5 0.5 3.3 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.0 2.8 8.3 91.3 55.0 48.1 0.4 2.2 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.7 11.3 104.6 60.4 51.8 2.3 7.8 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.3 7.2 11.9 110.8 61.9 54.0 0.7 3.6 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 1.7 5.5 11.0 103.0 58.5 50.4 1.2 3.5 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.2 6.9 11.1 109.1 65.0 53.9 0.5 2.6 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.4 7.0 11.1 111.2 63.9 55.1 1.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 8.7 12.2 118.6 66.1 57.6 0.4 3.7 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.7 9.5 12.9 105.2 62.2 51.0 3.1 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.0 7.5 77.9 51.2 43.8 0.9 5.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.0 5.6 10.9 109.6 63.6 54.5 0.5 2.3 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.1 8.4 92.0 54.1 48.2 0.4 2.0 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 1.8 5.8 12.4 105.6 60.3 51.0 2.4 3.6 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.1 9.2 96.0 56.6 49.5 0.5 4.0 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.4 15.2 99.5 58.6 49.6 1.6 5.5 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.5 8.3 11.8 109.1 60.8 53.7 1.0 3.8 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.4 4.5 8.7 91.1 54.8 47.6 0.3 2.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.0 10.2 100.1 60.6 50.7 0.2 3.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.9 11.9 103.4 59.6 50.7 1.4 3.8 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.3 8.4 12.4 110.4 59.9 53.2 0.3 2.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 3.1 3.0 10.9 106.8 61.5 54.2 0.8 1.8 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.4 11.6 109.5 59.8 53.9 0.3 3.2 5.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.3 6.2 8.4 88.2 55.7 47.2 0.9 4.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.1 13.5 103.2 60.5 50.5 4.1 7.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.2 2.9 8.8 93.4 54.3 49.2 0.4 1.2 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------