***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 5.3 5.4 13.0 131.3 69.9 64.9 0.4 2.1 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 3.7 6.5 10.6 117.0 67.3 61.5 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 9.0 9.6 13.2 134.8 72.2 65.9 1.6 3.7 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 9.3 11.3 17.2 166.1 80.3 73.9 0.7 4.5 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 9.7 13.1 17.8 161.6 79.5 72.4 2.3 5.1 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 8.6 11.9 18.1 192.5 82.7 76.4 1.2 3.2 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 2.6 5.3 10.4 117.4 65.7 61.7 0.8 1.5 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 11.4 12.8 19.1 175.6 79.6 73.9 3.9 7.9 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 7.4 9.8 16.2 154.9 78.5 70.9 0.9 2.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 11.3 13.7 18.3 164.2 78.1 72.9 1.5 5.2 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 9.4 12.7 17.5 167.8 80.2 73.5 0.6 5.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 8.9 13.3 17.7 178.5 81.1 74.1 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 10.1 16.7 19.3 179.3 81.8 74.5 0.6 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 10.8 12.9 17.5 145.6 73.9 68.0 2.4 5.4 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 9.1 11.4 13.6 166.8 82.1 71.7 0.4 2.8 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 8.7 13.3 18.2 179.7 82.3 75.2 0.8 3.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 4.9 7.0 9.8 110.8 62.9 59.2 1.2 3.8 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 8.6 10.5 19.2 166.7 77.9 73.1 1.9 4.6 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 6.4 7.0 11.3 120.1 68.6 62.3 1.2 3.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 11.7 15.1 23.1 178.8 79.2 74.8 1.5 3.8 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.4 9.5 15.3 147.1 75.8 68.7 2.0 2.8 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 5.3 6.6 11.0 114.2 65.0 59.4 1.4 4.1 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 4.9 6.7 12.9 128.8 70.4 64.3 1.7 3.8 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 9.6 9.6 17.2 155.7 75.8 70.3 2.5 4.4 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 9.1 12.0 16.7 147.8 73.0 68.5 1.2 3.5 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 8.8 11.0 18.6 185.7 81.5 75.3 1.0 4.2 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 6.4 6.8 14.3 137.3 69.9 66.2 0.4 3.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 8.7 10.9 15.5 171.4 81.9 73.8 0.3 2.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 14.3 17.8 20.5 170.7 78.6 73.8 3.1 6.1 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 5.6 5.7 11.2 122.2 68.6 62.9 1.2 2.5 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------