***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.4 2.1 2.5 -1.9 25.3 29.7 2.2 3.3 4.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.5 1.7 2.7 -1.7 26.4 31.4 2.3 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.7 2.7 3.0 -1.9 26.0 30.2 3.0 3.8 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -1.8 -1.8 0.1 -1.7 30.8 32.4 -1.7 -0.6 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.0 2.8 1.2 -1.9 28.2 29.9 3.2 3.9 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.5 2.8 0.4 -1.7 30.5 32.0 2.9 3.4 4.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 0.9 1.4 2.5 -1.8 24.5 30.0 2.0 2.6 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 -2.2 -2.5 0.7 -2.1 25.6 27.9 -2.2 -1.0 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.5 3.6 2.1 -1.9 26.7 30.3 3.9 4.6 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 2.7 3.1 1.3 -2.1 25.1 28.1 3.2 3.8 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.0 3.3 1.4 -1.9 28.9 30.4 3.4 4.0 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.3 1.1 -1.9 27.4 29.5 3.7 4.5 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 2.7 3.4 0.9 -2.0 27.8 29.2 3.4 3.9 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 3.0 2.9 2.6 -2.1 26.3 29.4 3.6 4.5 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.0 1.9 -0.8 38.2 40.8 2.8 4.0 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.3 3.9 0.9 -1.8 29.2 30.8 3.9 4.3 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 1.4 1.1 2.7 -1.6 25.8 31.6 2.3 2.9 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 1.7 1.7 1.2 -2.3 24.5 27.1 2.0 2.9 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 1.6 1.6 2.9 -1.7 26.8 31.9 2.6 3.2 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -2.2 23.4 26.4 0.3 1.4 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.2 3.3 2.7 -1.8 27.2 30.3 3.3 4.2 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 1.8 1.5 3.0 -1.5 26.6 32.5 2.7 3.5 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 1.9 1.9 3.2 -1.7 26.6 32.2 2.5 3.1 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 3.3 3.3 2.4 -2.1 25.2 28.5 3.8 4.6 6.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.2 2.0 1.2 -2.0 25.5 28.7 2.3 3.4 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.7 2.8 0.3 -2.0 27.3 27.9 3.5 4.4 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.3 2.1 2.0 -2.0 24.6 28.6 2.6 3.6 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.3 3.5 1.0 -1.3 33.8 36.5 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 0.4 0.1 0.7 -2.2 24.1 26.9 0.6 1.6 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 1.3 1.8 2.6 -1.8 26.1 30.5 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------