***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.7 2.8 4.3 0.0 44.8 48.5 0.4 3.8 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.4 1.4 4.3 -0.1 43.4 47.6 0.2 2.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.0 3.7 5.0 0.1 47.4 49.7 0.9 4.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.7 -1.4 1.8 0.1 45.5 49.3 -2.9 -0.3 2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 5.6 4.6 2.8 -0.1 46.0 48.2 2.2 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.3 2.2 0.1 47.5 50.4 2.7 3.4 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.0 0.9 4.1 -0.2 42.1 46.7 0.1 2.0 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 0.0 -1.8 2.5 -0.1 45.0 48.2 -2.6 -0.4 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.1 4.3 3.7 0.0 45.9 48.4 2.2 5.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 5.4 3.7 3.1 -0.1 44.8 48.0 1.6 4.8 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.0 3.9 2.8 -0.1 45.4 48.1 1.8 5.3 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.8 3.7 2.7 -0.1 45.3 48.0 1.9 5.0 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.4 3.7 2.1 -0.3 44.6 47.2 1.8 4.7 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.0 3.7 4.4 0.0 46.5 48.6 1.1 3.9 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.7 2.9 3.1 0.7 50.2 53.6 1.0 2.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.2 4.4 2.5 -0.1 45.9 48.3 2.6 5.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.0 1.1 4.3 -0.1 43.5 47.0 0.5 2.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.6 2.2 3.2 -0.2 43.3 47.5 1.3 3.2 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 3.5 2.1 4.7 0.0 45.5 48.4 -0.2 2.3 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.1 1.5 1.4 -0.2 42.5 48.2 -1.1 2.3 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 5.6 4.5 4.4 0.1 47.4 49.7 1.7 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 3.3 1.4 4.5 -0.1 44.3 47.0 0.8 2.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 3.7 2.6 5.2 0.2 48.7 49.7 0.6 2.8 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.2 3.6 4.2 -0.1 45.3 48.2 1.1 4.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.4 3.5 2.7 -0.1 44.8 47.6 1.1 3.8 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.1 1.8 -0.4 43.6 46.3 2.4 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.4 3.1 3.7 -0.2 43.9 47.6 0.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.4 4.8 2.6 0.5 48.6 52.2 2.1 4.8 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 3.1 1.1 2.6 -0.2 42.7 47.3 -0.4 2.2 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.2 1.8 4.3 0.0 44.1 47.9 -0.1 2.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------