***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.0 2.0 2.2 -1.7 31.7 35.2 2.0 3.5 4.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.1 1.6 2.6 -1.3 34.0 39.2 1.5 3.2 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.2 2.6 2.8 -1.6 33.9 37.0 2.5 3.9 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -2.5 -2.2 0.1 -1.1 36.3 39.5 -3.3 0.4 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.2 2.6 1.2 -1.4 34.6 36.6 2.5 3.7 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.7 2.3 0.2 -1.6 32.3 35.1 2.3 4.4 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.0 1.0 2.4 -1.4 32.3 37.8 1.1 3.0 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -2.8 -3.2 0.8 -1.6 32.1 35.4 -3.2 -0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.7 3.1 2.2 -1.3 37.1 37.9 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.1 1.4 -1.6 34.2 36.0 2.1 3.4 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.1 3.2 1.5 -1.4 35.5 37.0 2.7 3.8 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.6 2.7 1.2 -1.4 33.6 36.4 2.6 4.3 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.9 1.9 1.1 -1.7 32.3 35.0 2.0 3.1 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.5 2.8 2.8 -1.4 36.6 39.0 2.7 4.2 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 2.7 1.9 -0.3 45.2 46.1 1.7 4.3 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.2 1.0 -1.5 34.1 36.3 3.2 4.5 5.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.3 1.5 2.7 -1.0 36.2 40.6 0.9 2.9 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.2 0.9 1.3 -1.7 33.2 35.6 0.9 2.1 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.2 1.3 2.8 -1.3 34.2 39.2 1.3 3.1 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 -0.8 -1.1 -0.2 -1.8 28.8 33.4 -0.5 1.0 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.3 2.9 2.7 -1.4 36.2 37.7 2.7 3.9 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.6 1.7 3.1 -0.9 37.4 41.8 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.4 1.8 3.0 -1.3 34.8 39.1 1.8 2.8 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.8 2.7 2.6 -1.5 35.8 37.9 2.6 5.1 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 1.7 2.1 1.2 -1.6 32.9 34.9 2.1 2.8 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.1 2.3 0.3 -1.7 30.6 33.2 2.4 3.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.2 2.3 1.8 -1.8 31.3 33.9 2.4 3.3 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.4 1.1 -0.7 40.8 42.8 2.1 4.1 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -0.4 -0.2 0.8 -1.7 31.4 34.7 0.1 2.3 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.0 1.4 2.4 -1.5 32.2 37.4 1.4 3.2 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------