***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -4.7 13.5 14.1 1.5 4.3 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 -1.5 -3.7 0.0 -4.6 10.4 12.7 0.7 2.7 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 -0.8 -2.7 -0.2 -5.3 10.3 12.0 1.8 4.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 -3.6 -3.9 -2.9 -4.6 15.6 16.4 -2.2 0.6 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 -0.3 -1.2 -1.9 -5.1 12.5 13.4 1.6 3.4 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 -0.8 -1.2 -2.8 -4.8 15.7 17.2 0.9 3.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 -1.5 -4.1 -0.2 -4.5 10.5 13.0 0.3 2.6 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 -4.2 -5.7 -2.6 -5.7 10.6 11.8 -1.9 0.8 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 -0.1 -1.1 -0.9 -5.1 11.4 12.5 1.8 4.6 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 99 1 0 100 -0.6 -1.6 -2.0 -5.7 10.4 11.7 0.7 3.4 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -5.0 14.2 15.5 1.5 3.5 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 -0.3 -0.8 -2.0 -5.2 12.4 13.8 2.0 3.7 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 94 6 0 100 -0.6 -0.9 -1.5 -5.2 15.9 17.0 1.8 3.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 -1.0 -2.9 -0.3 -5.6 9.7 11.9 1.4 5.3 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -2.7 27.0 27.1 0.7 3.0 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 0.0 -0.5 -1.9 -4.9 14.9 16.4 2.1 3.5 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 -1.8 -3.7 0.0 -4.2 10.7 13.9 0.3 2.3 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 98 2 0 100 -1.5 -2.6 -2.3 -6.0 9.8 11.2 0.8 2.0 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 -1.6 -4.0 0.1 -4.6 10.3 12.6 0.5 3.3 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 -3.4 -4.3 -3.5 -5.8 12.2 12.5 -1.4 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 -0.4 -1.5 -0.3 -5.2 12.2 12.6 1.7 3.9 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 -1.6 -3.7 0.6 -4.1 11.0 14.0 0.7 2.2 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 97 3 0 100 -1.7 -4.0 0.2 -4.7 10.2 12.9 0.7 3.0 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 -0.1 -1.6 -0.7 -5.8 9.3 11.2 1.8 6.1 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 -0.5 -1.3 -1.2 -4.9 14.4 14.5 0.9 3.1 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 97 3 0 100 -0.2 -0.4 -2.7 -5.1 14.0 14.8 1.3 4.1 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 -0.9 -1.8 -0.6 -4.7 14.6 14.6 1.9 3.8 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 0.3 0.2 -1.6 -4.0 19.9 20.6 1.3 2.7 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 -2.1 -2.8 -2.7 -5.8 11.4 12.1 0.0 2.4 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 -1.9 -4.4 -0.2 -4.8 10.1 12.3 0.5 2.8 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------