***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -1.2 32.4 35.1 -3.6 -2.1 -1.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 -4.7 -4.6 -3.5 -1.1 30.2 35.6 -4.5 -3.0 -2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 -2.6 -2.2 -3.5 -1.3 30.4 34.2 -2.2 -1.1 -0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -7.7 -7.6 -6.3 -1.2 31.0 34.9 -7.5 -6.1 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -4.7 -4.0 -5.8 -1.3 33.6 34.5 -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -5.9 -5.2 -7.9 -1.2 36.4 36.4 -5.3 -4.6 -3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 -4.7 -4.2 -3.5 -1.2 29.6 34.2 -4.1 -2.7 -1.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -7.1 -9.1 -7.5 -1.3 36.0 35.4 -9.3 -7.5 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -3.6 -5.4 -1.2 33.7 35.5 -3.6 -2.2 -1.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 -2.5 -3.7 -6.8 -1.3 34.1 34.8 -3.8 -2.9 -2.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -4.6 -4.0 -6.5 -1.3 35.3 35.7 -4.2 -3.5 -2.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -5.4 -4.4 -7.1 -1.4 36.9 35.4 -4.7 -4.0 -3.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -5.1 -4.3 -7.0 -1.2 34.9 35.9 -4.4 -3.6 -2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -2.9 -5.4 -1.2 33.2 35.2 -2.9 -2.2 -1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 -2.8 -3.6 -4.4 -0.3 40.1 43.9 -3.6 -3.2 -2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 -3.9 -3.3 -7.0 -1.3 35.3 35.8 -3.3 -2.6 -1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 -4.9 -4.4 -3.3 -1.1 29.5 35.7 -4.3 -3.1 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -6.3 -5.9 -7.2 -1.4 33.8 34.3 -5.9 -4.8 -4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 -4.7 -4.4 -3.5 -1.1 31.0 35.9 -4.3 -3.2 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -9.6 -9.3 -8.1 -1.2 35.9 36.0 -9.4 -8.8 -6.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 -4.2 -3.8 -4.2 -1.2 33.8 35.3 -4.0 -2.7 -1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 -5.0 -4.4 -3.3 -1.0 31.2 36.8 -4.3 -3.5 -2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 -4.2 -4.2 -3.7 -1.1 32.7 35.8 -4.1 -2.9 -1.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -4.3 -4.1 -5.6 -1.3 33.2 34.8 -4.2 -3.2 -2.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 -4.3 -4.3 -4.8 -1.4 32.0 33.6 -4.2 -2.6 -1.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 -5.2 -4.6 -7.5 -1.5 33.4 33.3 -4.6 -3.5 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -4.3 -4.1 -4.0 -1.3 33.5 35.1 -4.2 -2.7 -1.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -5.5 -5.1 -5.8 -0.8 35.6 39.4 -5.3 -4.2 -3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -5.0 -6.1 -7.7 -1.3 36.5 35.7 -6.4 -5.4 -4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 -4.8 -3.9 -3.5 -1.2 30.2 34.8 -3.8 -3.0 -1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------