***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 -6.3 -4.0 -4.7 -2.7 23.7 24.8 -2.9 -1.8 0.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 -7.5 -7.5 -4.6 -2.5 21.7 24.2 -4.7 -2.5 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 -6.0 -6.2 -4.8 -3.0 20.9 22.8 -2.4 -0.9 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 -9.1 -8.2 -6.9 -2.6 29.8 28.2 -8.0 -6.1 -2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 -7.1 -6.5 -6.6 -3.1 26.4 26.5 -5.6 -2.6 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -7.2 -7.5 -8.6 -2.3 30.0 31.0 -7.4 -4.3 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 -7.7 -7.0 -4.9 -2.9 21.2 22.6 -4.2 -2.6 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 -10.4 -10.2 -8.6 -2.9 26.3 27.3 -8.9 -7.5 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 -6.5 -6.2 -6.4 -2.7 25.2 26.2 -4.9 -1.6 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 -7.3 -7.1 -8.0 -3.1 22.8 24.8 -4.8 -2.9 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 -6.9 -6.1 -6.9 -2.5 28.7 29.0 -5.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 -6.8 -7.6 -7.6 -2.6 30.5 30.7 -7.5 -3.2 -2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 -7.0 -5.7 -7.3 -2.1 31.0 31.7 -5.5 -3.7 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 -6.9 -5.0 -6.1 -2.7 24.0 26.5 -3.2 -1.7 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 -2.8 -4.3 -4.0 -0.6 39.9 40.0 -5.1 -3.1 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 -5.8 -5.0 -7.3 -2.3 31.1 31.1 -4.7 -2.4 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 -7.4 -6.5 -4.5 -2.5 22.7 24.6 -4.7 -2.7 -0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 -9.8 -10.0 -8.2 -3.3 21.7 23.1 -8.0 -4.5 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 -7.0 -6.0 -4.4 -2.3 22.2 25.2 -4.1 -2.6 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 -12.8 -12.6 -9.4 -3.2 25.5 26.6 -11.4 -8.7 -6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 -7.4 -7.2 -5.2 -2.8 22.7 24.8 -5.0 -1.8 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 -6.3 -6.1 -3.9 -2.0 23.8 27.3 -4.7 -2.7 -0.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 -6.5 -5.1 -4.5 -2.2 23.1 26.1 -3.7 -2.0 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 -6.5 -5.2 -6.3 -2.9 23.9 25.2 -4.1 -2.2 -0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 -7.3 -6.4 -5.4 -2.8 24.6 25.4 -4.5 -2.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 -7.2 -6.0 -8.2 -3.0 29.0 28.5 -5.5 -3.2 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 -7.3 -5.5 -5.0 -2.6 25.8 26.5 -4.4 -2.8 0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -6.0 -6.3 -6.1 -1.9 34.7 33.5 -6.3 -3.8 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 -9.1 -8.8 -9.0 -3.0 25.7 26.5 -8.0 -4.3 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 -6.8 -7.7 -4.7 -2.7 20.1 23.3 -3.7 -2.7 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------