***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 48.1 117.3 69.8 62.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 25.3 29.8 43.3 115.2 66.0 58.9 15.9 23.0 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 32.6 43.5 47.7 115.9 67.7 62.2 21.4 28.5 42.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 42.9 42.4 50.9 110.9 60.0 58.0 25.1 39.8 47.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 39.9 43.8 52.1 112.9 62.0 59.5 22.2 36.0 44.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 32.9 36.6 51.7 114.3 61.2 58.8 14.3 30.3 37.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.3 31.8 43.4 116.0 67.7 60.0 15.6 25.0 31.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 57.6 66.2 57.2 113.4 64.8 59.6 33.5 53.1 66.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 26.6 32.8 55.4 119.0 67.0 63.7 20.2 23.2 32.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 34.1 46.2 58.5 118.0 68.3 62.9 23.5 29.8 44.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 33.5 40.6 50.4 113.9 63.9 59.6 18.1 29.4 42.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 32.1 35.0 50.8 114.3 65.2 59.4 13.7 27.9 36.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 34.0 44.7 51.8 116.5 65.9 60.2 18.2 28.0 44.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 47.4 54.4 57.0 121.9 67.8 64.2 28.9 44.9 53.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.9 19.3 40.9 92.8 44.5 45.3 15.3 22.8 35.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.9 39.3 49.4 113.2 63.9 58.7 15.7 27.4 39.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 26.9 27.2 41.2 111.7 62.0 56.5 11.6 24.2 28.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 32.1 46.2 64.9 121.5 71.3 64.9 20.4 28.9 43.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 30.5 36.2 44.7 116.3 66.6 59.7 19.1 28.9 36.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 35.5 44.4 74.8 113.3 65.3 59.5 14.4 32.3 45.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 31.5 38.9 52.4 118.1 67.2 63.4 17.2 28.1 35.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 26.7 29.7 42.5 109.3 60.6 54.9 15.8 23.5 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 26.5 37.1 48.2 119.6 67.5 62.4 16.1 23.9 36.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 37.8 46.7 57.4 121.4 69.1 65.0 25.3 35.4 43.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 34.3 40.6 55.0 117.8 67.7 63.1 22.2 31.7 39.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 14.6 26.1 49.0 107.9 58.3 55.3 14.0 25.4 38.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 34.4 35.6 53.0 120.3 70.3 64.5 15.6 25.8 33.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.8 23.6 45.1 101.3 51.6 51.1 13.6 22.4 35.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 58.5 69.8 69.3 119.6 70.9 63.4 28.6 54.2 62.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 26.4 32.8 44.5 116.2 67.6 60.6 17.0 22.5 32.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------