***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 12.8 127.3 64.9 59.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.9 5.2 12.5 134.1 69.1 59.4 1.0 2.7 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.9 13.6 13.0 129.3 68.1 60.3 1.3 2.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.6 13.7 13.6 124.4 66.1 60.2 6.2 7.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.8 14.7 13.9 127.8 66.8 60.6 4.5 10.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.7 11.5 13.1 129.8 68.7 59.9 3.1 7.5 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.2 12.4 132.5 68.9 59.6 1.6 3.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.9 24.4 14.7 131.9 68.5 60.6 8.7 15.5 24.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.3 9.7 14.3 129.8 67.8 61.3 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.0 13.4 15.0 130.3 68.7 61.1 5.5 8.2 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.2 11.7 13.0 130.3 67.7 61.0 6.2 9.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.2 9.1 12.8 135.6 68.7 61.1 1.2 5.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.2 14.4 13.1 136.6 69.7 61.8 3.3 9.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.3 15.6 15.6 132.7 70.8 61.0 3.0 4.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.2 7.7 12.4 121.8 67.0 59.5 0.8 4.4 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.5 12.7 12.6 131.1 67.5 60.7 1.4 8.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.7 5.7 12.1 130.5 68.6 58.6 0.9 2.9 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.9 11.3 16.9 132.2 68.5 61.2 3.6 7.9 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.4 8.2 12.7 134.4 69.5 59.5 0.7 1.8 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.3 13.0 19.9 132.9 67.5 61.1 3.1 6.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.6 10.3 13.8 129.5 66.8 60.9 2.9 5.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.9 5.1 12.2 125.5 65.3 56.6 0.5 3.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 3.5 7.5 13.3 134.7 70.8 60.4 0.8 2.0 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 9.5 14.5 15.3 131.6 70.0 61.3 4.6 7.3 11.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.2 13.3 14.6 128.7 68.0 61.3 1.3 6.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.8 13.2 139.4 69.3 62.1 3.5 9.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.8 8.7 13.9 128.3 67.6 60.3 1.3 4.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.4 9.0 12.4 121.0 65.8 59.2 0.9 5.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.7 18.2 131.8 67.5 60.8 7.4 14.9 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 3.9 6.4 12.5 132.5 68.8 59.6 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------