***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 12.3 112.3 65.3 59.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.1 9.3 12.3 120.4 64.9 58.6 2.4 4.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.4 11.8 12.4 112.5 65.4 58.1 3.7 8.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 8.9 9.7 12.4 103.3 60.6 54.1 3.8 7.7 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.8 10.8 12.7 107.8 63.1 55.0 3.6 8.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.9 12.7 110.6 60.1 55.4 2.8 4.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.2 9.3 12.5 122.7 69.4 59.7 1.0 4.3 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 12.0 13.6 14.6 110.1 62.9 56.3 5.4 10.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.6 10.0 13.3 112.7 65.9 56.8 3.0 6.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.3 12.1 14.4 112.5 65.0 57.0 3.0 6.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.2 9.1 12.2 107.6 61.7 54.6 3.5 4.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 6.1 9.7 12.9 111.2 63.4 55.9 2.9 5.1 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.8 9.3 13.0 114.1 63.3 56.2 4.1 6.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.0 19.1 14.7 118.1 62.2 58.7 9.3 13.1 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.1 10.9 93.1 58.5 50.8 1.0 4.1 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.3 12.1 107.7 62.1 54.4 2.8 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.0 10.2 12.4 125.6 68.0 60.4 1.4 5.2 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.1 10.6 16.3 115.8 64.9 58.7 5.5 7.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.1 10.6 12.3 117.7 63.7 58.0 2.6 6.6 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.5 10.0 20.3 111.9 64.5 57.9 4.0 8.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.8 10.3 12.7 111.7 67.5 57.7 3.6 6.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.3 12.5 121.4 64.5 58.6 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.7 12.6 115.7 63.1 58.4 3.1 7.5 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.8 17.1 14.5 116.4 64.2 58.9 5.8 9.8 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 8.6 10.0 13.7 109.8 64.3 57.7 3.4 7.7 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.9 7.5 12.8 108.6 63.8 54.5 2.6 4.3 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.6 8.1 13.5 112.2 65.6 58.7 2.9 6.1 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.2 5.0 11.5 98.0 59.5 51.8 1.5 3.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.0 19.4 17.9 115.0 64.6 58.7 7.4 14.8 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.5 11.2 12.2 117.3 65.4 58.1 1.2 4.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------