***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 11.7 110.0 65.1 56.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.4 10.8 112.7 62.8 56.9 0.3 2.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.7 6.8 11.5 108.0 62.2 55.4 0.4 4.8 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.5 6.8 12.4 100.9 57.5 52.5 2.9 5.6 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.9 6.5 11.6 93.3 57.3 49.0 0.6 4.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.6 3.4 12.5 91.8 51.3 49.9 0.5 3.3 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.8 4.4 10.6 112.4 64.0 56.7 0.4 2.2 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.7 14.2 99.8 60.6 52.0 2.3 7.8 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 1.6 7.3 13.1 103.0 62.4 53.7 0.7 3.6 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.6 13.9 100.8 60.1 52.6 1.2 3.5 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 4.7 5.4 11.9 97.0 59.2 51.1 0.5 2.6 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.5 12.8 100.8 59.7 53.0 1.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.1 11.6 88.8 51.6 47.8 0.4 3.7 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 6.3 9.6 13.8 114.1 63.6 56.6 3.1 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.8 6.9 11.1 93.4 56.2 49.6 0.9 5.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.4 11.7 93.7 55.6 50.4 0.5 2.3 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.1 3.7 9.7 103.6 62.0 54.5 0.4 2.0 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.6 15.9 108.3 64.3 55.5 2.4 3.6 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.7 11.1 112.9 62.0 56.6 0.5 4.0 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.9 19.6 107.1 62.6 53.7 1.6 5.5 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 1.8 8.4 12.2 102.2 61.5 53.8 1.0 3.8 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.9 10.2 101.2 59.8 52.8 0.3 2.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.0 11.9 115.4 63.0 56.4 0.2 3.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.2 8.9 13.8 110.6 64.6 56.2 1.4 3.8 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.3 8.5 13.0 106.1 61.7 53.8 0.3 2.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.2 1.8 11.8 90.1 52.5 48.1 0.8 1.8 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.6 12.9 113.2 64.4 57.1 0.3 3.2 5.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.9 11.2 92.1 54.5 49.6 0.9 4.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.4 17.3 109.2 64.0 55.2 4.1 7.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.8 4.9 11.2 114.5 62.5 57.3 0.4 1.2 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------