***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 9999.0 0.0 11.2 120.4 64.5 62.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 3.4 3.7 7.7 90.9 59.0 54.5 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 4.4 6.7 10.8 114.5 61.7 60.5 1.6 3.7 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 5.2 8.4 12.5 117.1 63.4 62.2 0.7 4.5 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 5.9 8.1 13.8 125.7 65.0 64.1 2.3 5.1 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 8.0 6.7 13.3 133.3 73.6 69.5 1.2 3.2 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 2.1 4.5 7.8 93.5 59.2 55.0 0.8 1.5 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 8.5 9.8 13.6 116.1 62.6 61.6 3.9 7.9 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 3.7 8.7 14.6 133.3 67.4 66.3 0.9 2.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 6.2 9.4 15.3 132.6 67.3 66.5 1.5 5.2 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 6.0 7.0 13.2 124.9 66.2 64.6 0.6 5.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 3.8 7.1 12.3 114.8 63.6 61.8 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 8.8 7.0 14.1 135.4 70.1 68.5 0.6 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 6.5 8.3 12.9 123.1 63.7 62.8 2.4 5.4 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 4.2 2.3 6.5 63.2 49.4 44.7 0.4 2.8 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 47 53 100 7.2 7.6 12.9 126.5 69.9 66.3 0.8 3.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 4.5 5.0 7.1 84.0 59.1 52.4 1.2 3.8 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 5.3 8.1 15.9 133.0 67.1 66.9 1.9 4.6 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 4.0 4.2 8.6 98.5 60.0 56.7 1.2 3.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 5.4 5.4 15.0 103.6 58.4 57.2 1.5 3.8 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 3.5 6.7 13.7 131.4 66.2 65.6 2.0 2.8 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 4.8 5.1 7.6 86.7 57.2 52.9 1.4 4.1 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 4.4 4.5 10.5 112.9 62.2 60.7 1.7 3.8 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 5.3 7.7 13.9 128.6 66.1 64.9 2.5 4.4 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 4.7 8.0 13.7 129.4 67.3 64.5 1.2 3.5 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 4.8 4.6 11.2 101.5 57.6 57.0 1.0 4.2 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 3.7 6.4 12.8 129.6 68.4 64.9 0.4 3.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 3.3 2.7 9.9 96.4 60.9 56.6 0.3 2.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 7.6 11.0 16.0 124.9 66.0 64.0 3.1 6.1 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 3.0 4.2 8.5 98.7 60.4 56.4 1.2 2.5 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------