***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 3.8 0.1 53.0 51.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.3 3.7 0.4 54.6 54.4 2.3 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.1 4.2 0.2 53.8 52.9 3.0 3.8 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.1 0.2 2.1 0.4 57.3 55.7 -1.7 -0.6 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.2 2.8 0.2 55.1 53.0 3.2 3.9 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.6 3.1 1.2 -0.6 42.8 44.6 2.9 3.4 4.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.8 3.4 0.2 52.8 52.9 2.0 2.6 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.0 -1.5 2.0 -0.5 43.2 46.0 -2.2 -1.0 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.8 3.6 0.1 53.8 52.6 3.9 4.6 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.9 3.6 2.7 -0.3 45.7 47.5 3.2 3.8 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.0 2.7 0.0 52.3 51.0 3.4 4.0 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.3 2.4 -0.2 48.3 48.9 3.7 4.5 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 4.6 3.6 1.8 -0.5 43.3 45.4 3.4 3.9 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.5 3.9 -0.1 49.8 49.6 3.6 4.5 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.5 2.7 0.8 63.6 59.9 2.8 4.0 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.3 2.2 -0.1 50.5 49.7 3.9 4.3 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.1 3.5 0.4 52.0 54.3 2.3 2.9 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 1.8 2.2 2.3 -0.7 40.3 43.6 2.0 2.9 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.5 4.0 0.4 54.8 54.6 2.6 3.2 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 0.1 0.3 0.4 -1.0 33.0 38.7 0.3 1.4 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.4 3.9 0.2 54.5 52.8 3.3 4.2 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.7 3.9 0.4 53.6 55.0 2.7 3.5 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.2 4.3 0.3 54.2 53.7 2.5 3.1 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.5 3.6 -0.2 47.1 48.3 3.8 4.6 6.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.4 2.4 -0.1 48.9 49.6 2.3 3.4 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.9 4.0 1.4 -0.6 42.1 44.5 3.5 4.4 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.1 3.4 2.9 -0.2 47.5 48.4 2.6 3.6 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.2 2.6 0.6 60.4 57.6 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 0.5 0.8 1.5 -0.8 37.1 41.5 0.6 1.6 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.2 3.8 0.3 54.6 53.8 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------