***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.9 -0.6 40.8 45.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.0 2.3 3.6 -0.7 39.6 45.2 1.4 2.6 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.3 3.0 4.3 -0.5 43.9 46.6 2.6 4.1 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -3.0 -0.8 2.4 -0.2 51.1 49.0 -3.6 -0.9 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.6 3.0 -0.3 51.3 48.1 2.0 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.2 2.0 -0.2 50.8 49.7 2.2 3.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 0.6 1.2 3.4 -0.8 36.1 44.4 1.1 2.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -3.1 -2.2 2.5 -0.3 49.5 48.2 -3.2 -2.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.5 3.8 -0.4 49.6 47.6 3.1 4.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.4 3.9 3.1 -0.4 49.8 47.5 3.1 3.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.6 4.2 3.1 -0.2 51.0 48.7 2.4 4.2 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.7 4.5 2.9 -0.2 48.5 49.2 3.1 4.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.8 2.4 -0.2 47.5 49.3 2.5 4.2 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.6 3.9 -0.5 46.9 46.4 3.1 5.2 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.0 2.4 -0.1 51.6 50.3 2.6 4.0 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.2 2.7 -0.2 50.1 49.2 2.3 4.2 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.3 2.1 3.3 -0.7 38.5 44.5 1.2 3.4 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.3 2.8 -0.5 47.1 46.5 2.5 3.4 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.0 2.5 3.9 -0.7 41.9 45.7 1.9 3.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.4 1.5 0.9 -0.6 46.1 46.1 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.7 4.0 -0.4 46.1 47.2 2.6 4.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.8 3.0 3.8 -0.7 40.8 45.4 1.8 4.0 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 1.9 3.0 4.3 -0.6 45.0 46.2 2.1 3.8 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.5 4.8 3.9 -0.5 48.1 46.7 2.9 5.5 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.3 2.1 2.6 -0.5 43.4 45.8 1.7 2.9 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.6 3.8 2.2 -0.2 48.6 49.3 2.9 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 0.8 2.1 3.1 -0.7 40.3 44.6 1.5 2.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.9 2.6 -0.1 52.0 50.3 2.4 4.8 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -0.6 1.3 2.0 -0.6 46.8 46.2 0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 0.6 2.2 3.8 -0.7 38.7 45.6 1.4 2.5 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------