***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.3 0.4 49.9 53.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 0.5 2.6 3.9 0.4 52.5 54.2 0.2 2.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 1.3 4.1 4.6 0.5 51.0 53.7 0.9 4.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -3.6 1.5 2.9 1.0 58.8 56.3 -2.9 -0.3 2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 1.4 5.5 3.6 0.9 54.2 55.7 2.2 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.1 5.5 2.5 0.9 56.5 56.1 2.7 3.4 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 0.0 2.2 3.7 0.3 50.7 53.6 0.1 2.0 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -3.5 0.2 3.1 0.7 56.4 55.3 -2.6 -0.4 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 1.8 5.9 4.3 0.7 53.3 55.1 2.2 5.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 1.8 5.0 3.7 0.7 53.3 54.6 1.6 4.8 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 1.7 5.7 3.6 0.9 56.3 55.7 1.8 5.3 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 1.5 5.5 3.5 0.9 58.3 56.3 1.9 5.0 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.0 5.5 2.9 0.8 53.9 55.9 1.8 4.7 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 1.4 3.9 4.3 0.3 50.8 52.7 1.1 3.9 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 0.6 4.9 3.0 1.1 64.1 57.3 1.0 2.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 1.9 6.5 3.2 0.9 55.8 56.0 2.6 5.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 0.2 2.2 3.7 0.3 52.9 54.4 0.5 2.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 1.0 3.3 3.3 0.4 51.6 53.0 1.3 3.2 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 0.4 2.7 4.2 0.4 53.0 54.2 -0.2 2.3 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -0.7 2.3 1.5 0.3 50.7 52.8 -1.1 2.3 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 1.6 5.4 4.5 0.6 53.1 54.4 1.7 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 0.7 3.1 4.1 0.3 53.0 54.6 0.8 2.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 0.7 3.1 4.6 0.4 53.3 53.6 0.6 2.8 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 1.6 4.4 4.3 0.4 51.4 53.0 1.1 4.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 0.6 4.1 3.0 0.5 52.8 53.8 1.1 3.8 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.8 2.7 0.8 54.6 56.4 2.4 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 0.9 4.5 3.5 0.3 50.7 52.7 0.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.4 5.5 3.2 1.2 61.2 57.3 2.1 4.8 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 -1.7 2.3 2.6 0.3 52.1 52.4 -0.4 2.2 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 0.2 2.3 4.1 0.4 50.4 53.7 -0.1 2.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------