***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.1 -0.1 51.5 49.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.8 2.9 0.2 55.5 50.4 1.5 3.2 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.7 3.5 0.1 54.2 49.7 2.5 3.9 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.4 1.0 1.6 0.2 56.4 51.6 -3.3 0.4 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.2 3.9 2.1 0.0 54.1 49.4 2.5 3.7 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.4 2.4 0.5 -1.0 38.4 43.6 2.3 4.4 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.2 3.4 2.6 0.0 52.8 49.2 1.1 3.0 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -2.9 -0.9 1.1 -0.9 43.7 43.7 -3.2 -0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.5 5.2 2.8 -0.1 52.7 48.5 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 1.5 3.0 1.9 -0.7 45.9 45.0 2.1 3.4 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.0 3.8 1.8 -0.4 50.3 47.4 2.7 3.8 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.6 3.9 1.5 -0.7 46.3 45.2 2.6 4.3 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.0 2.3 0.8 -1.1 39.0 43.1 2.0 3.1 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 2.2 3.2 3.0 -0.4 45.2 45.4 2.7 4.2 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.1 5.1 1.8 0.4 58.4 53.2 1.7 4.3 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.8 4.3 1.3 -0.5 47.5 46.4 3.2 4.5 5.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.5 2.7 0.2 53.3 49.8 0.9 2.9 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 1.0 1.3 1.5 -1.0 36.7 42.4 0.9 2.1 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.3 3.3 0.2 55.8 50.5 1.3 3.1 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 -0.9 -1.1 -0.5 -1.5 28.9 38.9 -0.5 1.0 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.2 3.2 0.0 55.1 49.7 2.7 3.9 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.7 3.2 0.2 55.0 50.1 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.4 3.5 0.1 54.1 49.3 1.8 2.8 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.5 3.7 2.8 -0.5 45.5 45.6 2.6 5.1 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.8 1.7 -0.3 49.8 47.5 2.1 2.8 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.1 2.5 0.6 -1.1 38.3 43.2 2.4 3.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.2 2.2 -0.4 47.6 46.5 2.4 3.3 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.4 1.9 0.4 59.8 52.9 2.1 4.1 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 -0.8 0.3 0.7 -1.3 33.7 40.7 0.1 2.3 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.7 3.0 0.1 55.2 50.0 1.4 3.2 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------