***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 95 5 100 9999.0 0.0 3.8 0.7 51.1 52.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 3.1 5.2 4.4 1.7 59.5 59.8 0.7 2.7 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 4.4 6.0 4.4 0.9 54.0 54.1 1.8 4.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 0.9 2.1 1.7 0.6 53.4 54.9 -2.2 0.6 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 3.8 4.0 2.4 0.1 51.3 50.4 1.6 3.4 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 0.6 0.9 -0.3 -2.1 32.2 34.0 0.9 3.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 2.8 3.7 3.9 1.4 57.2 57.7 0.3 2.6 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.2 -0.4 1.2 -1.3 38.6 39.1 -1.9 0.8 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 4.9 5.6 3.6 0.2 51.3 50.8 1.8 4.6 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 4.2 1.8 2.1 -0.9 42.7 42.6 0.7 3.4 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 4.0 2.4 2.2 -0.4 47.6 46.7 1.5 3.5 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.1 2.4 1.6 -0.9 41.9 42.1 2.0 3.7 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 1.0 1.9 1.0 -1.6 34.3 37.9 1.8 3.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 96 4 100 5.5 4.1 4.3 0.3 47.2 48.5 1.4 5.3 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 3.3 5.3 3.5 1.7 60.6 62.2 0.7 3.0 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 4.4 3.0 1.5 -0.8 44.5 44.3 2.1 3.5 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 2.7 4.9 4.2 1.7 61.1 60.1 0.3 2.3 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 2.8 0.8 1.6 -1.5 36.3 37.5 0.8 2.0 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 3.7 5.9 4.6 1.6 59.5 59.1 0.5 3.3 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -1.3 -1.7 -0.3 -2.1 28.5 31.6 -1.4 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 96 4 100 4.1 4.6 4.0 0.5 52.1 52.0 1.7 3.9 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 2.7 5.2 4.8 1.8 62.0 60.6 0.7 2.2 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 95 5 100 3.3 5.0 4.8 1.4 57.3 56.6 0.7 3.0 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 6.6 3.0 3.5 -0.3 44.9 44.9 1.8 6.1 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 3.5 2.7 2.3 -0.1 47.5 48.6 0.9 3.1 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.6 1.3 0.3 -1.9 32.8 33.8 1.3 4.1 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 4.2 3.1 2.9 0.0 46.6 47.5 1.9 3.8 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 3.2 3.0 2.5 1.0 54.3 56.0 1.3 2.7 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.5 0.1 0.9 -1.6 34.1 35.4 0.0 2.4 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 3.1 4.0 4.3 1.5 58.5 58.1 0.5 2.8 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------