***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -2.4 -0.4 44.2 48.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 -6.5 -4.3 -2.9 -0.7 38.1 46.5 -6.2 -3.0 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 -3.3 -2.1 -2.5 -0.3 45.7 49.5 -2.8 -1.5 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -9.2 -6.9 -4.7 0.2 50.1 53.1 -8.7 -6.9 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -2.8 -4.1 0.2 49.2 52.6 -5.0 -2.7 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -6.5 -4.6 -5.7 0.3 50.5 53.8 -6.7 -4.7 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 -5.8 -5.1 -3.0 -0.7 35.9 46.0 -5.6 -2.8 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -10.1 -8.8 -5.0 0.2 48.4 52.1 -9.9 -8.5 -6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 -4.3 -1.9 -3.3 0.0 49.8 51.2 -4.3 -1.9 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -4.8 -2.7 -4.4 0.1 49.3 51.5 -4.6 -2.7 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -5.4 -3.2 -4.3 0.2 48.4 52.8 -4.9 -2.6 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -5.8 -3.8 -4.5 0.3 47.7 53.0 -6.1 -3.8 -2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 -5.1 -4.2 -4.9 0.2 48.3 53.5 -5.7 -3.3 -1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -2.7 -3.6 -0.4 44.6 48.2 -4.4 -1.6 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 -4.6 -2.3 -4.5 0.2 50.1 52.8 -3.7 -2.3 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 -4.7 -3.5 -4.7 0.3 48.2 53.8 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 -6.4 -4.8 -3.0 -0.8 35.9 45.9 -5.0 -3.0 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -7.3 -4.0 -4.9 0.1 48.1 51.0 -6.1 -4.0 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 -6.0 -3.7 -2.8 -0.6 40.9 47.1 -5.6 -2.4 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -10.4 -9.3 -6.1 0.2 49.3 52.0 -10.1 -9.3 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 -5.0 -2.3 -2.7 -0.2 48.9 50.4 -4.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 -6.8 -4.3 -2.7 -0.7 39.0 46.3 -5.9 -2.5 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 -6.0 -3.7 -2.8 -0.5 43.8 48.0 -4.8 -2.6 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -4.9 -3.1 -3.6 -0.1 46.2 50.0 -5.0 -2.5 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 -5.7 -3.8 -4.0 -0.2 44.7 49.0 -4.6 -2.6 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 -5.1 -4.1 -4.7 0.3 47.5 53.6 -5.3 -3.9 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 -6.2 -3.9 -3.3 -0.5 42.0 47.4 -5.2 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 -6.4 -3.9 -4.4 0.4 51.1 54.4 -5.6 -4.1 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -5.3 -6.2 -5.4 0.1 48.9 51.1 -7.6 -6.0 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -5.3 -4.4 -2.8 -0.6 39.5 47.3 -5.6 -2.7 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------