***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -2.3 0.1 47.2 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 -5.5 -2.0 -2.5 0.4 51.9 54.1 -4.5 -2.1 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 -3.6 -1.2 -2.5 0.2 46.6 51.9 -2.9 -0.9 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -9.3 -5.3 -5.0 0.4 49.3 53.8 -9.0 -5.2 -4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 -5.2 -2.2 -4.5 0.3 48.9 53.2 -3.4 -2.2 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -5.6 -3.5 -6.4 0.1 46.7 52.6 -4.2 -3.3 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 -5.3 -1.8 -2.5 0.3 50.5 53.7 -4.4 -1.8 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -9.3 -6.7 -5.1 0.4 50.5 53.4 -9.5 -6.7 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 -4.7 -2.2 -3.6 0.2 46.3 52.1 -2.8 -2.0 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 -4.2 -2.6 -4.6 0.2 49.0 52.2 -4.0 -2.5 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 -4.6 -2.5 -4.7 0.2 49.2 52.6 -3.4 -2.4 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -2.8 -4.8 0.4 49.8 53.9 -4.8 -2.8 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -2.6 -5.2 0.4 47.9 53.8 -3.2 -2.6 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 -3.5 -1.1 -3.5 0.2 50.7 52.2 -3.3 -1.1 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -5.3 -3.9 -4.6 0.5 48.1 54.1 -4.6 -3.8 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 -4.0 -1.8 -5.1 0.3 48.8 53.8 -2.8 -1.7 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 -5.0 -2.1 -2.4 0.4 51.9 54.7 -4.0 -2.5 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 -5.6 -3.8 -5.0 0.2 51.8 51.9 -4.8 -3.8 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 -5.1 -1.6 -2.5 0.4 51.6 53.8 -4.6 -1.6 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -6.8 -7.6 -5.8 0.5 51.7 54.1 -9.0 -7.7 -5.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 -5.0 -2.5 -2.8 0.2 45.5 51.7 -3.2 -2.3 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 -4.8 -2.3 -2.3 0.4 51.5 54.9 -4.6 -2.5 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 -4.6 -2.3 -2.6 0.3 50.7 52.8 -4.0 -2.3 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 -4.6 -2.5 -3.8 0.1 49.8 51.3 -4.1 -2.4 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 -5.2 -3.0 -4.3 0.0 45.5 50.6 -3.6 -2.2 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -2.3 -3.1 -4.9 0.4 47.1 54.6 -3.6 -2.7 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 -5.6 -2.1 -3.3 0.0 47.0 50.6 -3.8 -1.9 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -5.9 -3.5 -4.7 0.6 51.3 55.0 -5.5 -3.5 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -7.2 -4.2 -5.4 0.2 51.0 52.5 -7.0 -4.5 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -5.6 -2.1 -2.4 0.3 50.1 53.3 -4.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------