***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 -2.8 0.0 51.9 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -2.3 -2.9 0.2 53.5 51.3 -3.8 -2.7 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -0.5 -2.9 0.1 51.7 50.8 -2.6 -0.6 -0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -8.1 -6.4 -5.4 0.1 50.0 52.4 -7.3 -6.4 -4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 -2.3 -3.0 -5.1 -0.2 49.9 50.3 -4.7 -2.9 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 -5.9 -5.9 -8.0 -1.7 34.9 40.2 -6.1 -4.3 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -2.4 -3.1 0.1 51.3 50.7 -4.4 -2.5 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -9.2 -9.1 -6.9 -1.5 35.3 42.6 -9.1 -7.0 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -3.8 -2.3 -4.3 -0.4 50.6 48.1 -3.9 -2.3 -1.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 -4.8 -3.7 -6.1 -1.2 40.4 43.4 -4.2 -3.2 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -5.0 -4.2 -5.6 -0.6 42.0 47.7 -4.6 -3.8 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -6.1 -5.2 -6.1 -1.0 37.4 46.1 -5.6 -4.7 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 -5.5 -5.4 -6.9 -1.4 34.7 42.4 -5.4 -3.9 -2.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 -4.1 -2.7 -4.4 -0.6 44.5 46.0 -3.0 -2.4 -1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 -1.7 -2.0 -4.7 0.4 51.5 54.3 -3.7 -2.0 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 -4.5 -3.5 -6.2 -0.6 40.4 47.6 -3.7 -3.0 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -2.5 -2.9 0.2 51.5 50.5 -4.3 -2.6 -1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 -6.7 -6.0 -6.9 -1.8 34.2 40.0 -6.2 -5.3 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -2.3 -2.9 0.2 54.1 51.6 -4.0 -2.4 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 -11.5 -12.0 -8.5 -2.4 26.2 36.3 -10.4 -8.4 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 -2.0 -2.5 -3.3 -0.1 51.6 50.1 -3.7 -2.6 -1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 -2.5 -2.5 -2.7 0.2 52.9 50.6 -4.3 -2.9 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 -2.2 -2.5 -3.0 0.1 52.5 51.1 -4.3 -2.7 -1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 -4.6 -4.0 -4.9 -0.9 41.8 45.1 -4.5 -3.4 -2.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 -4.3 -2.3 -4.8 -0.4 50.9 48.5 -3.4 -2.3 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 -5.2 -5.1 -6.6 -1.4 32.7 42.8 -5.1 -3.2 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 -4.2 -3.1 -3.9 -0.4 48.9 48.0 -3.9 -3.0 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 -2.8 -3.2 -5.1 0.3 51.3 54.2 -5.1 -3.3 -2.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 -7.4 -7.6 -7.8 -2.3 28.4 37.1 -7.4 -5.5 -4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -2.1 -2.9 0.2 53.5 51.2 -4.1 -2.3 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------