***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.0 1.7 58.2 59.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 -0.8 0.2 -0.6 2.5 68.0 66.4 -4.7 -2.5 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 1.5 2.5 -0.6 2.3 71.2 67.1 -2.4 -0.9 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 -5.6 -3.5 -2.9 2.4 59.7 63.2 -8.0 -6.1 -2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 -2.3 -1.8 -2.3 2.2 59.9 62.4 -5.6 -2.6 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 -4.0 -4.6 -6.2 0.3 46.2 48.8 -7.4 -4.3 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 -2.2 -0.5 -1.0 2.2 61.3 62.0 -4.2 -2.6 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -7.0 -8.2 -5.1 0.2 43.2 47.3 -8.9 -7.5 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 0.3 0.9 -1.2 2.7 69.2 68.8 -4.9 -1.6 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 -2.4 -2.5 -3.8 1.0 52.1 54.7 -4.8 -2.9 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 -2.5 -2.3 -2.9 2.0 55.6 59.6 -5.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 -3.0 -4.1 -3.9 1.1 46.9 52.6 -7.5 -3.2 -2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 -3.3 -4.0 -4.8 0.4 44.5 47.4 -5.5 -3.7 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 0.1 0.4 -0.9 2.6 69.6 68.3 -3.2 -1.7 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 -2.7 -0.4 -1.6 2.9 64.8 67.7 -5.1 -3.1 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 -2.1 -2.0 -3.6 1.9 54.3 57.7 -4.7 -2.4 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 -0.9 -0.1 -0.5 2.6 69.6 66.5 -4.7 -2.7 -0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 -4.1 -4.5 -4.3 0.9 51.9 53.5 -8.0 -4.5 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 -0.4 0.7 -0.4 2.6 72.8 69.8 -4.1 -2.6 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 -8.0 -8.8 -7.0 -0.4 48.6 46.9 -11.4 -8.7 -6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 2.5 66.4 66.3 -5.0 -1.8 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 -0.8 -0.1 0.0 2.8 75.3 71.0 -4.7 -2.7 -0.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 0.0 0.6 -0.3 2.7 78.3 74.1 -3.7 -2.0 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 -0.9 -0.6 -1.8 2.1 64.9 63.9 -4.1 -2.2 -0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 -2.0 -1.7 -2.1 1.5 54.8 57.5 -4.5 -2.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -2.7 -5.1 -5.5 -0.6 37.5 42.0 -5.5 -3.2 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 -2.2 -1.6 -1.8 1.4 54.3 56.2 -4.4 -2.8 0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 -3.6 -2.0 -2.3 2.7 60.3 64.4 -6.3 -3.8 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 -3.7 -4.2 -5.4 0.5 51.7 52.2 -8.0 -4.3 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 -0.7 0.6 -0.6 2.3 66.4 65.3 -3.7 -2.7 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------