***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 14.0 17.6 29.0 69.7 34.7 33.1 16.4 24.0 32.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 13.8 16.1 24.9 66.4 29.2 31.4 17.9 24.1 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 17.6 24.0 30.0 71.6 34.7 33.7 22.9 33.2 43.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 19.4 28.8 33.3 69.6 33.1 32.1 28.8 39.6 49.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 19.5 26.7 36.1 75.4 34.8 35.1 24.1 37.2 45.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 18.4 20.6 33.7 77.1 37.6 36.6 16.4 30.5 38.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 12.7 15.1 24.6 66.7 29.7 31.8 16.5 24.5 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 30.8 33.5 40.3 78.9 38.0 37.1 28.5 54.4 67.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 14.1 20.4 38.1 78.4 34.7 36.4 20.0 24.7 34.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 18.3 24.8 41.8 82.0 38.3 38.2 22.7 30.0 46.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 16.2 19.8 36.4 77.2 37.2 36.3 16.2 28.6 41.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 16.5 19.7 34.8 75.3 37.1 35.5 17.9 27.9 44.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 19.4 23.2 36.8 77.6 36.4 37.3 18.8 28.9 40.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 30.3 36.2 41.1 79.7 38.5 36.4 29.3 49.0 54.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 14.1 16.6 28.9 64.7 34.1 30.8 15.3 23.3 37.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 16.2 18.9 34.7 75.2 36.7 35.5 16.7 28.1 43.1 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 13.0 11.5 23.4 63.6 28.3 30.3 14.8 23.8 29.5 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 19.0 23.0 45.5 85.0 42.4 39.5 18.9 31.3 45.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 17.9 19.5 26.2 67.7 31.0 31.7 20.3 32.3 36.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 18.5 24.6 51.4 80.0 38.8 38.0 19.9 32.3 45.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 16.9 18.6 34.4 75.4 34.5 35.5 18.1 28.8 42.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 14.9 13.2 24.5 63.2 27.5 29.7 15.4 23.9 31.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 15.6 17.5 29.3 70.8 34.2 32.7 17.0 27.0 36.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 25.6 30.7 40.2 81.3 39.7 37.7 26.2 35.4 47.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 20.9 25.1 34.2 72.6 34.9 34.0 24.1 34.3 40.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 14.7 16.0 33.4 73.1 34.3 34.8 14.7 23.8 35.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 15.5 19.5 30.8 70.8 35.3 33.6 17.5 28.3 32.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 12.1 13.9 30.9 68.6 34.0 31.9 13.7 22.4 36.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 31.7 46.8 47.8 84.1 41.2 39.3 35.9 52.4 67.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 13.3 17.7 25.9 67.4 30.3 32.1 19.8 24.0 33.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------