***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.0 6.1 10.4 97.5 55.5 43.9 0.8 4.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.6 5.2 8.8 95.7 58.4 41.5 1.3 4.5 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.7 7.6 10.7 100.9 57.1 43.6 1.6 5.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.9 10.2 11.4 90.3 52.7 42.1 5.3 9.5 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.9 11.7 11.8 95.2 56.1 43.8 5.5 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.6 9.8 10.5 92.3 56.8 46.0 3.7 8.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.0 4.8 8.2 92.4 56.3 42.0 1.3 4.3 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.2 16.7 11.9 91.8 56.5 43.5 8.6 12.2 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.2 9.5 12.8 99.0 57.6 45.0 2.2 7.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.2 13.0 97.6 57.8 44.8 5.0 8.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.4 11.2 93.7 57.5 44.5 3.7 8.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.3 10.5 90.7 56.3 44.0 1.6 4.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.1 10.9 92.6 55.0 45.7 3.8 9.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 2.7 14.0 13.8 107.5 58.6 45.9 3.0 5.8 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.5 6.9 10.7 87.2 55.6 41.9 0.9 5.7 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.4 10.8 92.2 56.2 45.2 3.9 6.8 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.4 4.5 7.7 86.0 54.1 41.2 0.9 3.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.7 14.0 101.8 58.2 45.9 4.5 7.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.1 8.2 9.4 99.4 59.4 41.9 1.1 5.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.7 8.6 15.3 92.2 55.7 43.6 3.7 7.0 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.1 11.9 99.8 55.9 45.0 2.6 6.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 1.4 4.9 8.3 88.5 54.7 41.0 0.5 4.0 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.4 6.2 10.5 103.5 59.7 42.9 0.9 3.2 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.6 10.7 13.3 106.4 57.7 46.0 4.4 8.8 15.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.5 11.9 97.4 54.1 44.8 2.3 9.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.1 10.0 9.7 86.9 55.0 44.0 4.3 9.3 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.3 6.9 11.0 98.4 55.5 45.2 2.0 5.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.3 10.6 87.5 54.6 42.2 1.4 7.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.3 16.3 14.6 100.3 57.1 45.4 7.1 14.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.4 5.8 9.3 97.7 58.1 41.9 1.2 3.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------