***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.5 4.7 6.3 60.2 43.9 34.6 2.4 4.8 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.6 3.6 5.8 62.6 46.0 36.3 1.8 3.8 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.8 5.2 6.4 60.2 44.3 34.0 3.7 5.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 3.4 5.0 7.3 57.8 44.3 35.2 2.9 6.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.4 3.5 7.5 60.8 44.3 34.4 2.2 5.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 1.9 3.8 7.7 70.2 46.9 38.1 2.1 4.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 1.6 3.3 5.8 63.9 46.6 36.3 1.3 3.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 4.5 6.4 8.7 65.5 42.2 35.0 4.4 8.4 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 1.7 4.0 8.1 63.4 45.0 34.8 2.7 4.3 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 2.9 5.4 8.3 63.1 41.7 33.8 3.1 6.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 1.4 2.9 7.6 63.5 42.2 35.0 1.6 3.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 1.6 3.6 7.9 67.8 44.3 36.3 2.2 4.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 2.0 4.9 8.3 72.2 46.0 37.9 2.9 5.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 4.4 10.9 8.8 65.9 45.8 35.2 8.4 12.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.4 2.1 6.5 50.8 44.3 34.4 0.5 3.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 1.1 2.5 7.8 68.6 45.1 37.3 1.4 2.9 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.6 2.9 5.6 62.7 45.1 36.0 1.3 4.1 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 2.9 6.1 9.3 67.1 43.5 35.0 5.6 6.6 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.0 4.9 5.9 61.4 45.9 35.6 2.8 5.1 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 2.6 5.6 12.3 69.7 45.4 35.1 4.1 5.9 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.6 4.6 7.4 62.7 45.5 35.1 3.6 5.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.1 3.8 5.7 60.3 44.7 34.8 2.8 6.3 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.5 6.1 6.5 61.3 47.0 34.7 4.0 6.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 4.0 9.5 8.2 64.8 44.4 34.7 6.3 10.7 17.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.0 3.9 7.4 62.3 45.0 35.5 3.3 4.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 1.1 3.1 8.3 70.8 44.8 38.1 0.9 3.5 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.2 3.3 6.8 62.9 45.4 35.7 2.7 4.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 1.0 2.4 6.9 57.2 44.2 35.5 0.4 2.9 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 5.4 11.8 10.1 68.4 44.3 35.0 9.1 12.4 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 1.3 3.5 5.9 60.9 45.5 35.3 2.2 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------