***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 0.4 0.0 4.7 43.8 35.8 28.8 0.0 1.4 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 0.7 0.3 3.8 37.9 34.0 26.2 0.3 2.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 0.7 0.9 5.0 45.7 36.6 29.3 0.4 2.5 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 2.1 4.6 6.7 59.1 45.1 32.7 2.5 4.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 1.4 3.1 6.1 54.4 41.6 32.4 1.3 3.8 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 1.0 1.5 6.9 66.1 46.9 37.5 0.6 2.5 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 0.4 0.3 3.9 39.0 36.1 26.4 0.2 1.7 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 3.4 7.2 7.4 60.4 42.3 33.0 3.3 7.8 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 1.3 1.5 7.1 61.1 42.9 34.4 0.8 3.3 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 1.4 3.0 7.4 63.0 43.2 34.0 2.0 3.5 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 1.7 3.2 6.7 59.5 44.2 34.3 1.0 4.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 1.4 1.7 6.5 56.6 41.2 32.5 0.8 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.0 3.3 6.5 56.2 41.6 33.5 1.0 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 1.7 3.7 7.6 57.5 39.9 34.0 2.7 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.2 4.0 6.5 60.9 49.8 32.4 0.6 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 1.1 1.8 6.6 58.5 42.6 34.9 1.2 2.8 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 0.6 0.4 3.9 38.9 35.6 25.6 0.4 2.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 1.3 3.2 8.4 66.1 44.2 36.7 2.4 3.5 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 0.8 0.9 4.1 40.0 34.3 27.6 0.6 3.0 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 2.1 4.3 9.1 58.0 42.5 32.9 3.4 5.8 8.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 1.6 1.8 6.3 55.4 40.9 32.6 0.7 4.6 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 0.6 0.0 4.0 37.6 34.2 25.7 0.0 2.2 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 0.7 0.3 4.8 43.8 35.6 29.4 0.2 2.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 1.7 2.8 7.6 61.2 41.9 35.7 1.3 4.7 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 0.5 0.3 5.5 46.9 37.6 30.0 0.3 1.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 0.8 1.4 6.3 54.6 43.2 32.3 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 0.6 0.2 4.9 43.6 36.1 28.9 0.1 2.1 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 1.5 3.8 6.4 60.7 47.2 32.5 1.4 4.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.1 6.9 8.6 62.8 42.6 35.1 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 0.3 0.3 3.9 38.6 33.6 26.8 0.3 1.2 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------