***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.7 7.5 78.2 49.0 45.3 1.5 3.7 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.9 2.9 6.6 72.1 47.4 43.2 1.2 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.2 5.7 7.8 81.8 50.1 46.5 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.3 7.9 69.9 49.5 42.2 2.2 5.4 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.9 7.7 10.8 89.2 55.4 49.2 3.9 6.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.6 4.4 8.5 78.7 54.2 47.0 1.8 4.0 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.7 6.7 74.9 48.8 43.7 1.3 4.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.4 12.3 97.2 57.4 52.7 4.4 9.0 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.6 10.2 89.6 54.5 48.9 2.1 3.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.6 8.1 13.2 102.1 58.5 53.0 2.4 5.3 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.6 10.9 90.7 55.6 50.3 2.2 5.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.6 9.8 86.6 54.6 49.7 1.7 3.5 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.6 5.0 11.0 88.4 54.3 50.0 2.6 4.9 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.9 7.9 10.9 89.6 51.8 48.7 2.6 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.0 4.1 5.3 58.4 50.7 39.0 0.7 4.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.2 9.5 80.8 52.4 46.9 1.0 3.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.3 4.1 6.2 70.2 46.9 43.1 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.2 13.8 103.8 59.9 53.1 2.3 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.5 3.6 6.8 72.8 48.0 43.9 1.7 3.6 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.7 10.1 14.6 100.0 59.1 54.1 2.0 5.3 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.2 8.8 84.1 51.5 47.1 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.6 6.5 69.7 48.0 44.2 1.5 4.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.3 4.3 7.4 77.1 50.8 45.5 2.2 4.2 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.8 11.0 93.8 54.6 49.9 3.0 6.7 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.1 9.3 83.7 53.0 46.3 1.8 5.1 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.9 4.3 9.0 80.6 54.2 48.2 1.8 4.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.5 8.1 78.7 50.5 45.0 1.3 4.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.1 2.2 6.9 67.8 51.8 42.0 0.3 2.2 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.2 14.5 104.2 60.1 53.9 3.1 6.1 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.3 3.3 6.8 75.0 48.8 44.0 1.9 3.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------