***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 3.6 3.3 4.5 0.3 51.0 53.3 2.1 3.1 4.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.4 4.8 0.5 52.5 54.9 1.9 3.2 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.0 4.9 0.2 50.5 51.8 2.8 4.0 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.1 0.2 2.1 0.7 58.4 57.3 -1.6 -0.4 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.3 2.9 0.1 52.4 51.8 3.1 4.0 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.8 3.4 1.6 -0.5 47.0 45.6 2.8 3.6 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.2 2.8 4.6 0.4 52.1 54.4 1.7 2.8 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.0 -1.5 1.9 -0.7 44.1 43.0 -2.1 -0.8 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.9 3.8 0.0 50.9 51.0 3.9 4.8 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.9 3.7 2.5 -0.6 43.7 43.7 3.3 3.8 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.9 3.0 -0.1 50.1 49.3 3.5 3.9 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.2 2.6 -0.4 47.7 46.5 3.6 4.4 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.8 2.2 -0.6 45.4 44.0 3.4 3.9 5.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.4 4.6 4.4 -0.1 47.1 48.7 3.4 4.7 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 4.9 4.7 3.7 1.3 63.7 63.5 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.4 2.4 -0.2 50.0 49.0 3.9 4.4 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.1 4.7 0.6 53.5 55.9 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.2 2.3 -0.9 38.7 40.6 2.0 2.7 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.0 3.6 4.9 0.4 51.5 53.9 2.4 3.5 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 0.3 0.6 0.7 -1.0 37.9 39.4 0.4 1.5 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.2 4.4 0.1 50.4 51.4 3.4 4.2 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.0 3.6 5.0 0.5 53.6 55.5 2.6 3.5 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 3.8 3.3 5.0 0.2 49.5 51.9 2.2 3.3 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.4 3.9 -0.4 44.4 45.6 3.9 4.5 5.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.5 3.2 0.2 52.2 52.9 2.3 3.3 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.2 1.7 -0.6 44.1 44.4 3.5 4.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.6 4.0 0.1 50.3 51.7 2.4 3.6 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.2 2.7 0.7 59.1 58.0 3.4 4.6 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 0.7 1.0 1.7 -1.0 38.4 39.8 0.6 1.5 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.5 3.1 4.7 0.4 52.4 54.2 1.8 3.1 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------