***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 3.6 2.7 4.4 0.1 47.7 49.6 2.0 2.8 4.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 3.1 2.4 4.7 0.2 48.2 50.8 1.7 2.4 3.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 4.1 2.9 4.6 -0.2 46.1 47.6 2.4 3.2 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.3 0.8 1.8 0.4 51.4 52.2 -3.1 0.7 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.1 2.7 -0.2 48.6 48.0 2.6 3.2 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.2 3.0 1.5 -0.6 43.4 45.5 2.6 3.8 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.0 2.4 4.5 0.2 49.1 50.9 1.6 2.4 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -2.5 -2.4 1.7 -1.1 37.5 42.4 -2.6 -0.4 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.5 3.6 -0.2 46.6 47.8 3.0 3.6 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 1.3 2.4 2.3 -1.0 38.0 42.3 2.3 2.8 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.4 2.9 2.8 -0.5 45.1 46.0 2.5 3.3 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.4 3.4 2.3 -0.7 41.2 44.9 2.7 4.4 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.9 2.3 2.2 -0.9 40.4 43.1 2.3 3.2 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 4.4 2.9 4.0 -0.6 44.5 45.5 2.3 3.1 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.8 4.9 3.7 1.0 57.5 57.2 1.5 4.6 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.0 2.3 -0.4 46.5 46.6 3.0 4.1 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 3.2 2.6 4.5 0.3 49.9 51.5 1.2 2.6 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 0.7 1.0 2.0 -1.3 35.0 40.7 1.0 1.5 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 3.2 2.2 4.7 0.1 46.8 49.7 1.7 2.4 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -1.0 -0.5 0.6 -1.3 34.6 41.4 -0.6 0.5 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.0 4.2 -0.3 46.2 47.3 2.7 3.3 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 3.1 2.4 4.7 0.3 49.4 50.8 1.4 2.4 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 3.2 2.3 4.7 -0.1 45.6 47.9 1.6 2.4 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.3 3.3 3.6 -0.9 40.6 43.1 2.4 4.1 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 3.5 2.6 3.2 0.0 47.4 49.0 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.0 1.6 -0.7 42.3 45.0 2.3 3.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.3 3.0 3.9 -0.1 46.0 48.7 2.3 3.3 4.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.9 2.6 0.5 53.1 52.9 2.2 4.6 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -0.4 0.2 1.4 -1.4 33.2 40.2 0.1 1.2 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 2.9 2.1 4.6 0.2 48.0 50.4 1.9 2.2 3.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------