***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 97 3 100 3.2 2.9 3.9 0.0 49.5 48.6 1.2 3.0 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 2.9 2.8 4.4 0.2 51.1 49.9 0.9 2.7 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 4.3 3.2 4.5 -0.2 46.9 47.0 1.6 4.0 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 96 4 100 0.3 0.8 1.5 0.4 51.8 52.1 -2.3 0.1 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 96 4 100 3.2 2.7 2.2 -0.5 46.5 47.0 1.1 2.9 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 3.5 2.7 0.7 -1.0 48.8 44.0 1.2 2.8 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 96 4 100 2.2 2.0 4.0 0.0 50.0 49.2 0.7 2.0 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.0 -0.6 0.9 -1.7 38.0 37.4 -2.2 0.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 94 6 100 4.4 3.3 3.4 -0.4 46.0 46.4 1.8 4.0 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 4.0 1.8 1.7 -1.5 39.2 39.5 0.8 2.7 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 3.5 2.8 2.6 -0.7 47.0 46.0 1.5 3.1 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 4.9 2.2 1.8 -1.1 43.2 41.4 1.6 3.6 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 5.1 2.9 2.0 -1.3 43.4 41.4 1.4 4.3 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 5.5 2.8 4.5 -0.3 45.0 45.7 1.7 4.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 3.3 4.8 4.2 1.7 62.8 63.7 0.8 2.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 5.0 3.7 1.9 -0.7 47.5 46.0 2.5 4.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 95 5 100 1.9 2.1 4.3 0.3 52.2 51.6 0.4 1.6 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 2.6 1.0 1.1 -1.9 37.5 35.8 0.6 1.8 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 3.2 2.6 4.6 0.1 49.4 48.7 0.6 2.9 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -1.0 -1.7 -0.4 -2.2 33.2 33.4 -1.7 2.2 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 94 6 100 3.9 3.3 4.2 -0.3 46.7 46.8 1.8 3.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 96 4 100 2.4 2.3 4.8 0.3 51.2 51.6 0.6 2.1 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 2.6 1.8 4.6 0.0 45.8 46.7 0.9 2.1 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 6.3 2.6 3.5 -1.0 41.8 41.3 1.9 5.4 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 97 3 100 2.9 2.6 3.0 -0.2 47.2 47.6 0.9 2.7 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.5 1.6 0.5 -1.6 35.7 37.1 1.5 3.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 96 4 100 3.6 3.2 3.4 -0.3 47.7 46.7 2.0 3.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 3.2 3.6 2.6 0.7 55.9 56.0 0.9 2.6 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.9 -0.6 0.6 -1.9 35.5 35.1 -0.9 2.8 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 97 3 100 2.5 2.3 4.3 0.0 49.7 49.1 0.8 2.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------