***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 -1.9 -2.5 -2.3 -0.2 47.4 46.9 -3.6 -2.0 -1.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 -3.0 -3.9 -2.1 0.0 48.5 48.9 -4.2 -3.3 -1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 -0.9 -1.3 -2.1 0.0 47.8 48.7 -2.2 -1.1 -0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -5.6 -5.8 -4.5 0.5 56.9 55.9 -7.6 -5.9 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 -3.0 -3.3 -4.2 0.1 50.3 51.0 -4.0 -3.3 -2.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 -4.0 -4.3 -6.5 0.0 51.6 51.0 -5.1 -4.3 -3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 -2.6 -3.3 -2.1 0.0 48.2 48.5 -4.0 -3.0 -1.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -7.0 -8.0 -6.8 -0.9 40.5 40.7 -9.1 -7.4 -6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -2.3 -3.9 0.0 49.2 50.5 -3.4 -2.3 -2.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -2.7 -3.0 -6.0 -0.7 41.7 42.7 -4.3 -3.0 -2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 -3.0 -3.3 -4.8 0.1 51.1 50.6 -4.4 -3.3 -2.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 -3.8 -4.2 -5.7 -0.5 46.3 45.7 -4.9 -4.2 -3.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -3.2 -3.7 -6.0 -0.4 46.7 45.9 -4.5 -3.6 -2.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 -2.1 -2.6 -4.0 -0.2 44.2 46.9 -3.0 -2.4 -1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 -2.1 -1.8 -2.8 1.0 64.6 61.9 -4.1 -3.1 -1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 -2.3 -2.6 -5.3 0.1 52.1 51.6 -3.5 -2.6 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 -2.8 -3.3 -1.9 0.2 49.3 50.1 -4.2 -3.1 -2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -6.2 -5.9 -6.8 -1.2 35.1 37.4 -6.0 -4.6 -4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 -3.0 -3.6 -2.1 0.1 48.1 48.9 -4.3 -3.3 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -10.0 -9.6 -8.1 -1.6 30.9 32.6 -9.5 -9.0 -6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 -2.4 -2.8 -2.8 0.0 48.8 49.6 -3.8 -2.6 -2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 -3.2 -3.6 -1.9 0.2 48.9 50.0 -4.3 -3.5 -2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 -2.9 -3.3 -2.3 0.1 48.2 48.8 -4.1 -3.1 -2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -2.7 -3.4 -4.5 -0.5 42.5 44.4 -4.1 -3.0 -2.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -2.6 -3.3 -0.1 47.5 48.8 -3.9 -2.6 -2.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -3.2 -4.0 -6.4 -0.8 43.5 42.1 -4.6 -3.5 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 -2.4 -2.8 -2.8 -0.3 45.7 46.1 -3.9 -2.7 -1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -3.9 -3.9 -4.2 0.6 58.5 57.1 -5.7 -4.3 -3.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -6.7 -6.1 -7.5 -1.5 32.6 34.7 -6.1 -5.3 -4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 -2.9 -3.5 -2.1 0.0 48.5 48.7 -3.8 -3.3 -1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------